Turkey May Condemn Russia's Actions in Ukraine But That Won't Harm Ties, Says Journalist
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Over the years, the two countries have established solid trade and tourism ties, also cooperating on a number of security and defence projects as well. Moscow played a pivotal role in building one of Turkey's nuclear power plants and provides up to 50 percent of the nation's energy needs.
On Wednesday, Turkey joined 140 other nations at the United Nations and voted in favour of condemning Russia's special military operation in Ukraine that began last Thursday.
Consistent Policy
And Yusuf Erim, editor-at-large of the Turkish broadcaster TRT World, says the move fits with Ankara's policies.
"The condemnation was an expected reaction as Ankara respects the territorial integrity of all countries", he said.
Turkey has done that before. In 2008, it failed to recognise the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two breakaway republics that Georgia was trying to subdue.
Several years later, in 2014, following Crimea's reunification with Russia, Turkey avoided accepting Moscow's claims over that territory. And, more recently, after President Vladimir Putin recognised the independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, Turkish authorities voiced their position again.
Overcoming Flashpoints
Those measures probably caused a few raised eyebrows in Moscow and put a dent in Russo-Turkish relations, but Erim says the two nations have always managed to get through their "flashpoints", partially because of the ability of the countries' leaders to solve problems.
"President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Putin have known each other for twenty years. Throughout this period, they've had hundreds of meetings and phone conversations that has constructed a certain level of trust, confidence, and respect at the top level".
Respect aside, the two states are intertwined by a series of common interests.
Rich tourism is just one of them. Trade with a volume of about $32.5 billion a year is another.
But that cooperation is not limited to these fields only. Over the years, the two states have worked together on multiple defence and security related projects. Moscow also played a pivotal role in the construction of one of Turkey's nuclear power plants, located on the Mediterranean coast.
Energy has also been a major area of cooperation, with Turkey obtaining some 50 percent of its energy needs from Moscow. And although over the years Ankara has managed to diversify its gas resources, dependency on Russia is still strong.
These interests, says Erim, have helped the two nations to weather major storms. Such was the case with the assassination of a Russian ambassador on Turkish soil, the downing of a Russian jet in 2015, or the 2020 airstrike that claimed the lives of 34 Turkish soldiers.
Sticking to Neutrality
The differences on the Ukrainian front are likely to be overcome too, especially as Ankara's words of condemnation are not being backed up by major actions.
So far, Turkey has not supported any of the western sanctions against Russia, primarily because Ankara believes these measures cause economic damage to the civilian population.
Ankara has also decided to close down the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus Straits for any warships as an indication it wanted to stay out of the conflict.
Yet, staying above the fray will not be an easy task. Being a NATO member since 1952, Turkey has participated in multiple missions of the organisation. Although a war with the international body is currently off the table, Erim suggests that an escalation of tensions on the Ukrainian front might put Ankara in a tough spot.
"Judging from Ankara's past decisions, I believe that Turkey would meet its membership responsibilities and contribute to a defensive or peacekeeping force that receives broad multinational participation from NATO allies", said the journalist. "In the event of very limited participation from NATO members, Turkey would most likely act in line with the majority and refrain from contributing troops".
Erim believes his country would not want to go down the path of confrontation. It would rather see the conflict resolved, and it would even be willing to serve as a mediator between the conflicting sides.
"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already hinted in statements that he is warm to the idea of holding talks in Istanbul...but we have not seen a statement from the Kremlin regarding Turkey as a desired diplomatic venue". "Erdogan and Putin have a lot of experience working together in a diplomatic capacity. If the Belarus talks yield results that require a top-level meeting, I believe that Turkey would probably be a mutually acceptable venue for both Putin and Zelensky".
