2021 Munich Security Conference Monkeypox ‘Pandemic Simulation’ Resurfaces as Real-Life Cases Rise
17:35 GMT 20.05.2022 (Updated: 17:50 GMT 20.05.2022)
© Photo : OHSU / Kristyna Wentz-Graff
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The World Health Organisation convened an emergency meeting of experts on Friday to discuss the monkeypox outbreak. The disease, endemic to much of Africa and whose symptoms commonly include fever, swollen lymph nodes, and a blistery rash, was detected in the UK in early May, later spreading to continental Europe, Australia, Canada, and the US.
In 2021, the Nuclear Threat Initiative and the Munich Security Conference modelled what would happen if a bioengineered, highly deadly strain of the monkeypox virus was released by terrorists and spread across the globe.
In a mock news report previewing the tabletop simulation, which took place in March 2021, a fictional reporter from "GNN" tells viewers that “this monkeypox virus was engineered”, and that “with limited anti-viral drugs and no known effective treatments, countries around the world are struggling to control another pandemic with already devastating effects”.
The video warns of “billions of cases” and “hundreds of millions dead”, and stresses that “poor oversight and gaps in global governance leave us vulnerable to catastrophic biological threats”.
“We’re seeing far fewer cases in countries where governments took early and decisive action”, a fictional correspondent says in the video. “And some international experts are urging the WHO to adopt a phased approach to warnings”, a fake “expert” adds.
“The time to prepare for the next global pandemic is now”, the video ominously concludes.
More information about the exercise is to be had on the NTI’s website, which explains that the “fictional exercise scenario” was “developed in consultation with technical and policy experts”, simulating “a deadly, global pandemic involving an unusual strain of monkeypox virus that first emerged in the fictional nation of Brinia and spread globally over 18 months”.
“Ultimately, the exercise scenario revealed that the initial outbreak was caused by a terrorist attack using a pathogen engineered in a laboratory with inadequate biosafety and biosecurity provisions and weak oversight. By the end of the exercise, the fictional pandemic resulted in three billion cases and 270 million fatalities worldwide”, the site notes.
20 May 2022, 13:22 GMT
The NTI, which is a Washington, DC-based non-profit funded by the Open Philanthropy Project and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, warns that “gaps in the international biosecurity and pandemic preparedness architecture are extensive and fundamental, undermining the ability of the international community to prevent and mount effective responses to future biological events – including those that could match the impacts of COVID-19 or cause damage that is significantly more severe”.
Participants of the exercises proposed strengthening international pandemic risk assessment and early warning by establishing “clear triggers for national-level anticipatory response and aggressive early action”, as well as efforts to “reduce biotechnology risks and enhance oversight of life sciences research”, and the promotion of “new and stronger international health security preparedness financing mechanisms”.
A separate 36-page report produced at the conclusion of the simulation recommended setting up a "Joint Assessment Mechanism" which would “operate at the ‘seam’ between existing mechanisms – including World Health Organization outbreak investigation capabilities and the United Nations Secretary-General’s Mechanism for investigating alleged deliberate bioweapons use”.
The report includes a handy “Scenario Design Summary”, with the “fictional exercise scenario” kicking off on 15 May 2022. By January 2023, 83 countries were affected, with 1.3 million people dead, and 70 million cases reported. By the end date of December 2023, these figures had risen dramatically.
Excerpt from 2021 NTI report with dates on a fictional monkeypox outbreak, its global impact and policy response.
© Photo : Nuclear Threat Initiative
The real-world monkeypox outbreak and the 2021 NTI/MSC exercise comes against the backdrop of concerns about the Global Pandemic Treaty being proposed by the World Health Organisation, and set to be discussed at the World Health Assembly in Geneva beginning on Sunday.
The proposed treaty has received flak from Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who suggested its implementation would lead to overreach by national governments and international organisations like the WHO into ordinary peoples’ lives.
In a segment on his programme that aired Thursday, Carlson read excerpts from the proposed agreement, noting that it mandates “a whole of government and a whole of society approach to pandemic preparedness”, as well as a “compliance committee” which requires member countries to “inform WHO about the establishment of [a] national competent authority responsible for overall implementation of the [International Health Regulations] that will be recognized and held accountable”.
The treaty also recommends “national and global coordinated actions to address the misinformation, disinformation and stigmatization that undermines public health”, and for the WHO to create “standards for producing a digital version of the International Certificate of vaccination and prophylaxis”.
PolitiFact, an online fact-checking organisation funded by the Gates Foundation, Microsoft, Facebook, TikTok, Google, and others, dismissed concerns raised by Carlson and others, assuring that “No, the US is not backing a WHO takeover of national health policies”, and suggesting that the treaty itself is merely a revamping of a “key guiding document”.
At least 86 monkeypox cases have been confirmed and 57 more have been suspected in countries including Britain, the US, Canada, Australia, and several nations in Western Europe. No fatalities have been reported to date.
18 February 2022, 21:02 GMT
