Wallace, Sunak or Mordaunt? Pundits' and Bookies' Favorites for Next UK PM
15:39 GMT 08.07.2022 (Updated: 15:20 GMT 28.05.2023)
© AP Photo / Matt Dunham / Penny Mordaunt speaks ahead of Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt launching his leadership campaign for the Conservative Party in London, June 10, 2019
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Boris Johnson's decision to step down as Conservative Party leader while continuing to run the country until his successor is chosen has fired the starting gun for one of the most hotly-contested leadership races in recent decades.
Britain's big bookmakers have laid odds on the favorite contenders to succeed Boris Johnson as PM and Tory leader.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace — a former British Army captain and one of the leading proponents of NATO's proxy military showdown with Russia in Ukraine — is the bookies' favorite.
He leads the pack by a nose over Rishi Sunak, whose announcement he was quitting as chancellor of the exchequer on Tuesday evening helped prompt the wave of resignations that finally persuaded Johnson to step down on Thursday.
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Let’s restore trust, rebuild the economy and reunite the country. #Ready4Rishi
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But hot on the heels of the front pair are Trade Policy Minister Penny Mordaunt, a prominent Brexiteer, and Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Tom Tugendhat, a stubborn Europhile even more hawkish than Wallace.
By lunchtime on Friday, William Hill pegged Wallace as favorite with 3/1 odds, followed by Sunak on 9/2 and Mordaunt on 11/2.
Tugendhat trailed on 7/1, while 'big beasts' Liz Truss — the geographically-challenged foreign secretary —, new Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi and cabinet walkout leader Sajid Javid would all win you a tenner on a one-quid stake.
Sky News' sister company Sky Bet favored Wallace and Sunak more at 5/2 and 4/1, respectively, but fancied Mordaunt less — at 13/2, a tenner on the one-time defence secretary would win you £65. The bookie rated Tugendhat better than William Hill at 6/1, with Truss on 10/1, Javid on 11/1, and 2019 runner-up Jeremy Hunt on 14/1 along with Zahawi.
Penny Dreadnought
But a straw poll of Conservative voters by Tory spin-doctors group Conservatives in Communications showed Mordaunt — a serving Royal Navy reservist in her Portsmouth constituency — tearing away from the pack with more than double the support of her nearest rivals Sunak and Wallace.
Tweet of a straw poll of Conservative supporters for the party's 2022 leadership election
Attorney General Suella Braverman, one of the first to throw her hat into the ring, was way down the betting sheet on 50/1 at William Hill and 40/1 at Sky Bet.
"I am putting myself forward because I believe that the 2019 manifesto presents a bold and inspiring vision for our country," Braverman told BBC Radio 4’s Today program on Friday morning. "I want to deliver on the promises contained in that manifesto."
G.O.A.T. — Greatest of All Tories?
Backbench outsider Steve Baker, the most hard-line Brexiteer and COVID-skeptic in the field, was ranked at 20/1 by William Hill and 22/1 by Sky.
"Some people I deeply respect are telling me, even imploring me to do it. And so I must consider it seriously," Baker said. "The Conservative Home poll keeps putting me in the top 10," he pointed out. "It would be wrong of me to take it lightly."
The former European Research Group chairman camp sixth in the latest leadership poll by the Tory grassroots website over the weekend.
Baker, sporting a new goatee beard, insisted he was "realistic" that it was "quite improbable that the rebel commander… with no cabinet experience should win," but added: "It would be wrong of me to lightly dismiss serious people saying I should be Prime Minister.
Steve Baker sets out why he would make a good Prime Minister, saying he is very popular with Conservative Home members and he's been told he's popular with the public.
— Piers Morgan Uncensored (@PiersUncensored) July 7, 2022
Piers challenges him that he might have to "acknowledge reality".@piersmorgan | #PiersMorganUncensored pic.twitter.com/e9qWS1Ae2k
