Tory Leadership: How 358 MPs Will Decide Finalists in Race to be Next PM

© AP Photo / Matt Dunham / A political betting analyst for Star Sports bookmakers poses with a board showing odds on the next leader of the ruling British Conservative Party and British Prime MinisterA political betting analyst for Star Sports bookmakers poses with a board showing odds on the next leader of the ruling British Conservative Party and British Prime Minister
A political betting analyst for Star Sports bookmakers poses with a board showing odds on the next leader of the ruling British Conservative Party and British Prime Minister - Sputnik International, 1920, 11.07.2022
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Conservative backbench MPs will meet on Monday the elect the 18 members of the powerful 1922 Committee — who will then set the rules for the most hotly-contested party leadership race in living memory.
Up to a Dozen Tory figures are in the running to become next party leader and Prime Minister in the wake of Boris Johnson's resignation.
The favourites so far are former chancellor of the exchequer Rishi Sunak, who is backed by 35 of the party's 358 MPs, Trade Policy Minister Penny Mordaunt with 22 backers and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss with 16.
Those numbers matter as the party's powerful 1922 Committee of backbench MPs is set decide rules for this contest, including a minimum threshold of nominations needed — by 6pm on Tuesday to enter the contest — as well as the MPs' votes need to progress through each round.
A rule change before the 2019 leadership contest — which installed Johnson as leader and PM after the departure of Theresa May — set the bar for entry at eight nominations. 10 hopefuls, including Home Secretary Priti Patel, new Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi and 2019 runner-up Jeremy Hunt can count on that many or more.
The 2019 nominations were followed by a series of votes by Tory MPs. The candidate with the fewest votes dropped out of each round, along with any getting below the threshold of five per cent of MPs in the first round and 10 per cent in the second. The last two left standing were put to a vote of the party membership — currently around 200,000.
One senior MP told The Telegraph the latest contest would be run at breakneck speed, since MPs were due to begin their summer holidays on July 21.
That means the 358 MPs could knock the most popular candidates among grass-roots Tories — currently Mordaunt and Truss — out of the running before members get a say.
That could give a "big disadvantage to candidates on the fringe" against the 'household names' who have already launched snazzy online campaigns. "Some of them are not even household names in their own houses," one senior Conservative quipped.
But a rapid leadership succession could help the ruling party by hastening Johnson's departure from Downing Street, where he has insisted on remaining as PM until his successor is chosen.

Knock-Out Stages

The first ballot of MPs is set for Wednesday afternoon, with the result not announced until Thursday morning. That could spark a round of horse-trading, with no-hopers dropping out and backing stronger candidates in the hope of a place in the next cabinet.
The second round of voting will be on Thursday, followed by weekend break.
Monday will see three separate election hustings debates, one organised by the 1922 Committee, one by a rump of 92 senior MPs and one by the Common Sense Group that opposes various 'woke' policies.
The latter could be tough for Mordaunt, who insisted to Parliament earlier this year that "trans men are men and trans women are women".
"I am biologically a woman. If I have a hysterectomy or mastectomy, I am still a woman. And I am legally a woman," Mordaunt tweeted on Sunday, denying she was "woke". "Some people born male and who have been through the gender recognition process are also legally female. That DOES NOT mean they are biological women, like me," she wrote.
Two more knock-out rounds of balloting follow on Tuesday July 19 Wednesday July 20. The committee hopes to have whittled the field down to a pair of candidates by Thursday July 21 after which Conservative Central Office takes over the election process.
Hustings for the final candidates will be held around the country, with party members having until late August to send in their postal ballots. The winner will be announced on September 5, four weeks before the start of the Conservative annual conference in Birmingham.
Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak hosts a press conference in the Downing Street Briefing Room on February 3, 2022 - Sputnik International, 1920, 11.07.2022
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Defence Secretary Ben Wallace and Steve Baker, former chairman of the pro-Brexit European Research Group of MPs, have already dropped out of the race, with Baker backing Attorney General Suella Braverman.
Braverman, Patel and former Women and Equalities Minister Kemi Badenoch are considered true blue Conservatives and strong pro-Brexit candidates.
The great white hopes of the Europhile Remain faction are Hunt and bookmaker William Hill's fourth-place favourite Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the House of Commons' Foreign Affairs Select Committee.
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