Some European States May See Economic Output Fall 6% if Russia Cuts Off Gas, IMF Officials Say

"When we consider a full Russian gas shutoff from mid-July, we focus on the impact relative to a baseline of no supply disruption this year," the post said. "If physical constraints impede gas flows, the fragmented market approach suggests that the negative impact on economic output would be especially significant, as much as 6 percent for some countries in Central and Eastern Europe where the intensity of Russian gas use is high and alternative supplies are scarce, notably Hungary, the Slovak Republic and the Czech Republic."

"A reduction of up to 70 percent in Russian gas could be managed in the short term by accessing alternative supplies and energy sources," the officisl said. "However, diversification would be much harder in a total shutoff. Bottlenecks could reduce the ability to re-route gas within Europe because of insufficient import capacity or transmission constraints. These factors could lead to shortages of 15 percent to 40 percent of annual consumption in some countries in Central and Eastern Europe."