Why US Gains Nothing From Presence in Syria Except Denying Territories to Assad
18:50 GMT 24.08.2022 (Updated: 16:59 GMT 31.07.2023)
© AP Photo / Baderkhan Ahmad
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The US conducted an air strike and vowed to carry out another in Deir ez-Zor, Syria against allegedly pro-Iran groups after an attack on the Green Village base near the Iraqi border on August 15. What's behind the escalation?
"What's going on here is the latest in a series of tit-for-tat actions which underline the absurdity of the presence of US forces in Syria," says Peter Ford, former UK ambassador to Syria (2003 – 2006). "The US gains nothing from this presence, except in that it denies territory to the Syrian government. Allowing Assad to walk in would look like a success for Syria's ally Russia, which would be particularly awkward for Biden at this juncture because of Ukraine. The US forces must therefore submit to being a target for hostile militias, not even able to retaliate forcefully because that would invite escalation."
The US military continues to maintain its illegal presence in the provinces of Deir ez-Zor, Al-Hasakah and Raqqa. There, the US contingent is collaborating with the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) militia.
On August 15, several rockets landed near the military base in northeastern Syria housing US troops without causing any injuries, according to a statement from Maj. Gen. John Brennan, the commander of the Combined Joint Task Force - Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR). Washington insists that the attacks were conducted by groups backed by Iran. However, Tehran resolutely denies having any ties with the militants. On August 24, a US base in Syria near the Iraqi border was hit again by rocket fire, according to Iraqi security sources.
This is not the first time US positions and personnel in northeastern Syria have come under attack from unidentified military groups. Earlier, military observers suggested that the assaults had apparently been launched by local Arab tribes in eastern Syria, already resentful of US-backed de facto Kurdish rule over Arab-majority areas. Two years ago, on August 11, 2020, sheikhs and elders of the Arab Al-Uqaydat tribe met in Deir ez-Zor, stating that the US-led coalition was responsible for murdering tribal sheikhs in the province. They demanded that the region be cleared of the SDF, with local control and natural reserves being returned to the Syrians.
Deir ez-Zor is the most strategic city in Syria, because it links Iraq to Lebanon, explains Dr. Imad Salamey, associate professor of political science and international affairs at the Lebanese American University.
"There are roads that pass through there and Deir ez-Zor is quite an important strategic highway for weapons and supplies coming from Iran to Syria and Lebanon," Dr. Salamey says. "It's strategically important. It's close to an important river that passes through Syria. It is also important in terms of its location vis-à-vis the Kurds, so it's strategic. And finally, it has a predominantly Arab Sunni population, which is being subjugated to Iranian influence. That's also important for many groups fighting in that country. Who wins that population and keeps them on their side is critical to winning that city, which is extremely strategic."
24 August 2022, 00:57 GMT
Reasons Behind Recent Escalation
The US strikes on positions of alleged pro-Iranian militants could be due to two reasons, Dr. Salamey points out. First, Washington is "growing impatient with the consolidation or the build-up of partnership between Russia and Iran"; second, the US is "raising the bar for its negotiations with the Iranians" over the resumption of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), according to the scholar.
Mehran Kamrava, professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, also believes that the US-Iran nuclear negotiations could be a factor behind the US' bellicosity.
"Iran and the United States are on the verge of signing the nuclear accord and the United States, particularly President Biden, is under a lot of pressure from the Republicans in the Congress who are opposed to the deal, and so are a number of highly influential Democratic senators," Kamrava suggests. "As a result, Biden wants to show toughness in relation to Iran in general and in relation to the IRGC in particular."
Despite Washington trying to play tough, it is not in a comfortable position right now, according to Dr. Salamey.
"They are no longer as militarily relevant in Iraq, but also given the Turkish incursions in the north and inability of the United States to demonstrate a strong alliance with the Kurds," the scholar says. "That makes the Americans not so much of a reliable ally to the Kurds. The situation from that perspective is working unfavorably to those of the United States and increasing American impatience about the reality on the ground."
To complicate matters further, the US presence has the added disadvantage of pushing Turkey closer to Russia, because Turkey hates to see a US-protected Kurdish statelet emerging on its border, notes Ford.
While pledging further "retaliation" attacks, the US does not have much room for maneuver in Syria, according to the former diplomat:
"This absurdity goes on partly because the 'international community' as defined by the West (i.e. the Anglosphere, the EU and Japan) only cares about following what it calls 'rules-based behavior' when it is the West's adversaries who are gaining some advantage," Ford says, adding that the US presence in Syria is undoubtedly illegal in international law, given that the excuse that they were fighting Daesh* passed its sell-by date long ago.
*Daesh is a terrorist group banned in Russia and many other countries.
