Why Angola Elections Indicate Need For Change & How Russia Could Help
11:17 GMT 02.09.2022 (Updated: 17:15 GMT 12.04.2023)
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The ruling People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) won the African country's recent general election with 51% of the votes. Its major rival, the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), won 44%. UNITA submitted an objection to the results on August 30, citing alleged irregularities.
"This year's election on August 24, 2022, is very important for Angola for several reasons," explained Gilson Lázaro, associate sociology professor at Angola’s Agostinho Neto University and research collaborator at the Center for African Studies at the Catholic University of Angola.
"The first has to do with demographic change, since most of the voters are young people aged between 17 and 25. The second reason is political and also generational. There has been a change of president both in the MPLA, the party that has been governing until now, and UNITA, the opposition party."
UNITA's popularity has gained pace over recent years, with public support for it growing from 27% in 2017 to 44% today. This increase in vote share can in part be explained by UNITA's decision to form a coalition with other opposition parties and pick a single candidate for the coalition, Adalberto Costa Junior, according to Lázaro. Junior managed to broaden the party's base and boost it by including members from two other political organizations, the Democratic Bloc and Abel Chivukuvuku's PRA-JA Servir Angola.
However, despite this growth in the opposition, the MPLA won with 51%, amounting to 124 deputies in the National Assembly, while UNITA won 90.
"This means that the MPLA has an absolute majority and President [João ] Laurenco can govern without negotiating," explained Dr. Albano Agostinho Troco, research associate under the SA-UK Bilateral Chair in Political Theory at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, South Africa.
"Basically, they [the MPLA] can approve any legislation (…) One other point about these results is that the MPLA lost in the capital, in Luanda. The party got around 30 and something percent of the votes while UNITA got 60% of the votes,” he continued.
Following the election, UNITA immediately challenged the results, citing supposed election irregularities.
However, it is unlikely that UNITA's stance will translate into a political standoff, said Yuri Bakharev, executive secretary of the Angola-Russia Business Council, vice president of the Angola-Russia Chamber of Commerce and Industry and representative of Afrocom Russia in Angola.
According to Bakharev, it is clear that the incumbent president and his party won, while the ongoing confrontation stems from UNITA's attempt to further improve its positions in the parliament and win more deputies after a possible recount. Bakharev does not see any preconditions for unrest despite mainstream press speculation about potential civil disobedience in the wake of the vote.
"Everyone understands that the MPLA deserves to be the ruling party, and, of course, it has all the main economic levers," he said. "UNITA is breathing down its neck only because reforms and transformations in the country have stalled, and they got stuck for completely objective reasons. In 2017, Joao Lourenco was elected for the first term, and immediately the economic crisis broke out, then the pandemic [began], then the energy crisis followed, and so on."
On the other hand, UNITA's popularity among Angolan youth is at least partly due to the party's "groundless populist promises," the Angola-based expert assumed. "It is the easiest way to lead the young people astray," he noted, adding that high unemployment and current economic hurdles prompt Angolan youngsters to pin the blame on the ruling party. Still, Bakharev doubts that the leaders of UNITA "realize what national governance at a state level truly is" or have a plan to boost the country's economy.
27 August 2022, 07:01 GMT
Were External Players Involved?
UNITA President Junior is largely considered a pro-western candidate. He joined the party when he was 13 following Angola's victory against Portugal's colonial rule in 1975. Five years later, he moved to Portugal amid the swirling civil war between the MPLA and UNITA who were backed by the USSR and US, respectively.
While in Portugal, Junior quickly rose to prominence and became the party's representative in the old colonial power. Since 1996, he represented UNITA's interests in Italy and the Vatican. After the civil war ended in 2002, Junior returned to Angola and was elected president of UNITA in November 2019.
"Costa Junior traveling to Europe, traveling to America, traveling to Israel was all part of presenting himself to the wider world as a credible presidential candidate," argued Dr. Jon Schubert, a political anthropologist at Switzerland’s University of Basel and long-time Angola observer. "I think there was certainly an attempt to forge alliances in a sense that these powers would then observe Angolan elections closely and potentially take UNITA's side in case of a contested result."
Indeed, when Junior filed an objection over the election results earlier this week, the EU and the US immediately urged the Angolan government to hold dialogue with opposition parties to address disputes, noted Dr. Paulo C. J. Faria, an Angolan political analyst and independent researcher.
(FILES) In this file photo taken on August 21, 2022 People buy and drink beer at a People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) street party on Cape Island in Luanda
© JOHN WESSELS
It appears that the EU and the US all have substantial oil interests in Angola amid the emerging energy crisis, suggested Schubert. Angola holds abundant untapped oil and gas resources estimated at 9 billion barrels of proven crude oil and 11 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves, according to the US International Trade Administration.
"This is what until now has, of course, protected the MPLA government," he said. "When oil prices fell and Angola became less attractive as a partner, the tone slightly shifted. We saw that from 2014/15 onwards. All of a sudden, the EU and the US were a bit more assertive. Some laws were passed that allowed for the uncovering and prosecution of some corruption cases in Angola. Oil plays a major role in this relationship."
Furthermore, there are no doubts that if Junior became president, he would re-calibrate Angola's foreign ties with Russia and China, according to Lázaro. The academic assumes that the balance would have "certainly tipped towards relations with the West, Europe, the United States, Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, Zambia, Namibia, the DRC and other African countries."
Still, Bakharev does not think that the West pulled UNITA’s strings in the latest elections. He observed that neither western powers nor Russia or China interfered in the African country's vote. "Everyone is behaving quite correctly, no one is trying to add fuel to the fire, or kindle inter-party and inter-tribal strife," the Russian expert said.
"Who is behind UNITA? It's hard to say when it comes to big players. But there are rumors, and confirmed ones, that [it is] sponsored by those dissatisfied with the policies of the president, who is waging a tough anti-corruption fight here in the country. And those offended invest in UNITA," Bakharev noted.
UNITA's rise during the recent elections has shown that the MPLA "will have to work more seriously and thoroughly in the next period of their candidate's presidency in order to prove to the people that they run the country, they know how to govern, they [could] govern it more efficiently," he pointed out.
(FILES) In this file photo taken on August 22, 2022 Supporters of Angolan opposition party National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) cheer during the UNITA final campaign rally ahead of general elections, in Luanda
© AFP 2023 / JOHN WESSELS
Why Russia's Expertise Could Come In Handy for Angolans
In this context, job-creation, implementation of new technology, and the development of existing industries are all high on the Angolan government's agenda, according to Bakharev. Under these circumstances external help is required to give Angola's economy a boost.
While the West is eyeing Angola as a potential satellite, the Chinese have expanded their influence in the African country and received strong government support. However, even though China has invested in Angola's economy, most of this money has returned to the Chinese enterprises implementing the projects since locals do not have the necessary technology and expertise, the Russian expert explains.
“[The Chinese] invested under the condition that 70% would go to the Chinese enterprises and 30% would be allocated for local enterprises, but there are no local enterprises – they are established by the same Chinese [companies]. As a result, the Chinese get all their money [back], while the Angolans still owe them," Bakharev explained.
For its part, Russia has largely limited its cooperation with Angola to food and military technology, according to the expert. However, in the past, the Soviet Union and Angola maintained comprehensive multi-level cooperation.
"The USSR helped Angola a lot. Starting from the 1960s, the Soviet Union provided aid to [Luanda] during its anti-colonial struggle against the Portuguese, and supported [Angola] in every possible way," he said, adding that the Soviet Union and Cuba also facilitated the MPLA's victory in the civil war against UNITA.
The USSR's model of assistance envisaged a whole set of programs for the African state, including healthcare, trade, infrastructure, and education, according to the Angola-based expert.
There is still a chance of extending Russo-Angolan collaboration, said Bakharev, adding that Moscow possesses the necessary resources and expertise to bolster Angola's economic growth, and that Angolans are familiar with Russian technology and approaches.
In particular, Angola has big plans for railway construction. Even though Chinese firms have largely occupied this niche, there is room for Russian Railways to participate, according to Bakharev.
"Russian Railways could have come and said that they are ready to build, invest, take a concession and supply locomotives, and wagons, and rails, and everything else," he suggested, adding that this requires political will.
Likewise, Russia could stretch a helping hand to Angola and Namibia and assist in building a new 600 megawatt hydroelectric power station on the Kunene River, especially given that Moscow maintains close ties with both Luanda and Windhoek.
Yet another sphere of Russo-Angolan potential collaboration is IT hardware, automation of management processes and secure networks, according to Bakharev.
"At every ministry, there are necessarily divisions that deal with computer science, digitalization, etc. Security and cyber-security are in great demand," the Russian observer highlighted. "Their networks at the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance, the banking system in general, are frequently collapsing, this is a weak point. And this niche is not yet occupied."
There are many spheres where Russia could help Angolans boost their technological growth and if Russian companies start training and certifying Angolan personnel that would not only contribute to the African country's development but would take the Russo-Angolan partnership to a new level, Bakharev concluded.
