https://sputnikglobe.com/20221006/modis-biggest-strength-is-that-voters-see-him-as-symbol-of-aspiration---political-analyst-1101571290.html
Modi's Biggest Strength Is That Voters See Him as 'Symbol of Aspiration' - Political Analyst
Modi's Biggest Strength Is That Voters See Him as 'Symbol of Aspiration' - Political Analyst
Sputnik International
India's federally ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has lost many of its traditional allies since 2014. While the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) ended its alliance... 06.10.2022, Sputnik International
2022-10-06T13:42+0000
2022-10-06T13:42+0000
2022-10-10T07:41+0000
india
narendra modi
narendra modi
bharatiya janata party (bjp)
yogi adityanath
opposition
opposition
opposition party
arvind kejriwal
aam aadmi party
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In August, Bihar state chief and JD (U) boss Nitish Kumar severed ties with the BJP in the state and is now at the forefront of efforts to unite the opposition parties to take on Modi in the 2024 national polls.Since, Nitish Kumar has held several meetings with top opposition leaders, including former Congress President Rahul Gandhi, Lalu Prasad Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD of Bihar), Telangana state chief and Bharat Rashtra Samithi supremo K. Chandrashekar Rao, Sitaram Yechury and D Raja of the Left parties, Delhi State Chief Arvind Kejriwal and Samajwadi Party's Mulayam Singh Yadav.Shantanu Gupta is a political analyst with a special focus on India's federally ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). He is the author of six books, including the widely acclaimed, “The Monk Who Became Chief Minister” which is the biography of Uttar Pradesh state chief Yogi Adityanath.In an interview with Sputnik, Shantanu Gupta discussed if Nitish Kumar could emerge as PM Modi's principal challenger, could the Modi-Yogi combo help the BJP sweep Uttar Pradesh in the 2024 elections, the chances of Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party in the Gujarat state elections in December and many more issues.Sputnik: How do you see Nitish Kumar as PM Modi's challenger in the 2024 national elections?Shantanu Gupta: First of all, Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, and Rahul Gandhi may not allow him to become the prime ministerial face of the opposition. If it happens somehow, which party will he represent - will he represent JD (U) or some other party because recently his party said that he could contest elections from Uttar Pradesh (UP)?I think in UP, where you don't have any kind of base, Nitish wants to contest based on Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party's popularity. Can you imagine a prime ministerial candidate fighting an election from a seat where his party doesn't even exist?A lot of people would say that Modi also went to fight from Varanasi but he had a strong party in Uttar Pradesh. Modi did not go randomly to a state where his party didn't have a strong presence - he didn't fight from Tamil Nadu or any southern state where BJP is comparatively weak.Kumar's home state Bihar has a maximum of 40 seats from which of 40 seats from where JD (U) can win from a maximum of 20 constituencies. Can you imagine a party having 20 seats in parliament leading a coalition? During the times of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, even the BJP had more than 150 seats. With 20 or 30 seats, you can't be the granddaddy or the umbrella of a coalition. So, it sounds very improbable.When Nitish Kumar goes to Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, or the Northeast, who will vote for him? It sounds like a very paper calculation. Against a stalwart like Narendra Modi who has now occupied the country's top post for eight years, Nitish Kumar doesn't have any track record, plus he has been changing partners every four years.Sputnik: You have known Uttar Pradesh state chief Yogi Adityanath for years, do you think PM Modi's charisma and Yogi Adityanath's appeal can help BJP sweep the state in the 2024 national elections?Shantanu Gupta: This is proven beyond doubt multiple times that PM Modi is the biggest leader of the nation after Indira Gandhi, although I don't agree with a lot of things that Indira Gandhi did, including the emergency. But she was a mass leader of sorts and after her, we have Narendra Modi as a mass leader.In states, we need someone who can double up for him - someone like Yogi Adityanath who doubles up or adds up his aura. That's why we say Yogi-Modi in the same breath. When people know that they are voting to choose the country's prime minister and they also know that Yogi is doing a fantabulous job, it adds up, and now the surveys are saying that BJP may clinch 76-78 seats in Uttar Pradesh.Sputnik: What is PM Modi's biggest strength - his Hindutva credentials (Mascot of the Hindus), his government's welfare schemes, or the emotional connection he shares with voters?Shantanu Gupta: Modi's biggest strength comes from voters. Why voters are voting for him is because they are not dumb, they are very smart entities, they are smarter than all the "media wallas" put together and they vote like an equation in their mind.Largely to my understanding, these have two or three component values - one is the governance delivery, how you are delivering things - from road to infrastructure to schemes everyone needs. Maybe someone like me may not need a lot of schemes, but I want good infrastructure, people in rural India need a lot of welfare schemes - free rations, etc.Second, a lot of people look for your foreign policy and defense policy.Someone connects with him today because he stands with the Hindu cause. Now I am not ashamed of being a Hindu which many of us were before 2014. So a lot of people may relate to him as someone who promotes start-ups, others may relate to him as someone who supports environmental causes, so everyone finds his peace of similarity with Narendra Modi and that's his character, that he has something for everyone. I think these are the elements that make him a phenomenon.Sputnik: How do you rate Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party's chances in Gujarat state, which is also PM Modi's home state?Shantanu Gupta: Any political party - be it the BJP, the Congress, or Arvind Kejriwal's party, when they go to elections they will make tall claims, they will make a winning claim, otherwise, how will they motivate their workers? Nobody will go to a state, [and say] ‘Oh, I am contesting here to win five seats,’ nobody will say that.The two governments the Aam Aadmi Party has formed, it has been taken from the Congress, the Delhi government was run by Sheila Dixit for a long time before Kejriwal snatched it and the Punjab government was also run by the Congress and now he has usurped them from there as well.In Gujarat, Kejriwal will look to occupy the Congress's space, and, very interestingl,y the Congress is fast ceding its space. Interestingly in Gujarat, the talk should be about BJP and Congress but it is sounding like BJP and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Though I doubt in this election, AAP would be able to take the Congress's space but it would become a 5-7 seat party there.
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Modi's Biggest Strength Is That Voters See Him as 'Symbol of Aspiration' - Political Analyst
13:42 GMT 06.10.2022 (Updated: 07:41 GMT 10.10.2022) Exclusive
India's federally ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has lost many of its traditional allies since 2014. While the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) ended its alliance with the BJP in 2018, the Shiv Sena and the Akali Dal did the same in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Janata Dal (United) or JD (U) is the latest to join the grouping of opposition parties.
In August, Bihar state chief and JD (U) boss Nitish Kumar
severed ties with the BJP in the state and is now at the forefront of efforts to unite the opposition parties to take on Modi in the 2024 national polls.
Since, Nitish Kumar has held several meetings with top opposition leaders, including former Congress President Rahul Gandhi, Lalu Prasad Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD of Bihar), Telangana state chief and Bharat Rashtra Samithi supremo K. Chandrashekar Rao, Sitaram Yechury and D Raja of the Left parties, Delhi State Chief Arvind Kejriwal and Samajwadi Party's Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Shantanu Gupta is a political analyst with a special focus on India's federally ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). He is the author of six books, including the widely acclaimed, “The Monk Who Became Chief Minister” which is the biography of Uttar Pradesh state chief Yogi Adityanath.
In an interview with Sputnik, Shantanu Gupta discussed if Nitish Kumar could emerge as PM Modi's principal challenger, could the Modi-Yogi combo help the BJP sweep Uttar Pradesh in the 2024 elections, the chances of Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party in the Gujarat state elections in December and many more issues.
Sputnik: How do you see Nitish Kumar as PM Modi's challenger in the 2024 national elections?
Shantanu Gupta: First of all, Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, and Rahul Gandhi may not allow him to become the prime ministerial face of the opposition. If it happens somehow, which party will he represent - will he represent JD (U) or some other party because recently his party said that he could contest elections from Uttar Pradesh (UP)?
I think in UP, where you don't have any kind of base, Nitish wants to contest based on Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party's popularity. Can you imagine a prime ministerial candidate fighting an election from a seat where his party doesn't even exist?
A lot of people would say that Modi also went to fight from Varanasi but he had a strong party in Uttar Pradesh. Modi did not go randomly to a state where his party didn't have a strong presence - he didn't fight from Tamil Nadu or any southern state where BJP is comparatively weak.
Kumar's home state Bihar has a maximum of 40 seats from which of 40 seats from where JD (U) can win from a maximum of 20 constituencies. Can you imagine a party having 20 seats in parliament leading a coalition? During the times of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, even the BJP had more than 150 seats. With 20 or 30 seats, you can't be the granddaddy or the umbrella of a coalition. So, it sounds very improbable.
30 September 2022, 14:28 GMT
When Nitish Kumar goes to Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, or the Northeast, who will vote for him? It sounds like a very paper calculation. Against a stalwart like Narendra Modi who has now occupied the country's top post for eight years, Nitish Kumar doesn't have any track record, plus he has been changing partners every four years.
I doubt there's any track record that Nitish Kumar could show which will give him votes across the country. Maybe he will win 10-15 seats in Bihar, that's all. But that doesn't make him a prime minister.
Sputnik: You have known Uttar Pradesh state chief Yogi Adityanath for years, do you think PM Modi's charisma and Yogi Adityanath's appeal can help BJP sweep the state in the 2024 national elections?
Shantanu Gupta: This is proven beyond doubt multiple times that PM Modi is the biggest leader of the nation after Indira Gandhi, although I don't agree with a lot of things that Indira Gandhi did, including the emergency. But she was a mass leader of sorts and after her, we have Narendra Modi as a mass leader.
In states, we need someone who can double up for him - someone like Yogi Adityanath who doubles up or adds up his aura. That's why we say Yogi-Modi in the same breath. When people know that they are voting to choose the country's prime minister and they also know that Yogi is doing a fantabulous job, it adds up, and now the surveys are saying that BJP may clinch 76-78 seats in Uttar Pradesh.
Sputnik: What is PM Modi's biggest strength - his Hindutva credentials (Mascot of the Hindus), his government's welfare schemes, or the emotional connection he shares with voters?
Shantanu Gupta: Modi's biggest strength comes from voters. Why voters are voting for him is because they are not dumb, they are very smart entities, they are smarter than all the "media wallas" put together and they vote like an equation in their mind.
Largely to my understanding, these have two or three component values - one is the governance delivery, how you are delivering things - from road to infrastructure to schemes everyone needs. Maybe someone like me may not need a lot of schemes, but I want good infrastructure, people in rural India need a lot of welfare schemes - free rations, etc.
Second, a lot of people look for your foreign policy and defense policy.
Third, what is your connection with people - like how can I relate to Narendra Modi - people relate to Narendra Modi as a symbol of aspiration. Someone who used to sell tea can become prime minister and that's why anyone can become anything in this country.
20 September 2022, 15:26 GMT
Someone connects with him today because he stands with the Hindu cause. Now I am not ashamed of being a Hindu which many of us were before 2014. So a lot of people may relate to him as someone who promotes start-ups, others may relate to him as someone who supports environmental causes, so everyone finds his peace of similarity with Narendra Modi and that's his character, that he has something for everyone. I think these are the elements that make him a phenomenon.
Sputnik: How do you rate Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party's chances in Gujarat state, which is also PM Modi's home state?
Shantanu Gupta: Any political party - be it the BJP, the Congress, or Arvind Kejriwal's party, when they go to elections they will make tall claims, they will make a winning claim, otherwise, how will they motivate their workers? Nobody will go to a state, [and say] ‘Oh, I am contesting here to win five seats,’ nobody will say that.
Even the Congress Party was about to form a government in Uttar Pradesh in the state polls but they got one seat. So, that's fine, everyone should have a fair play but keeping things practically in mind, Kejriwal's potential is to take the opposition's space in states, including Gujarat, where Congress is ceding ground.
The two governments the Aam Aadmi Party has formed, it has been taken from the Congress, the Delhi government was run by Sheila Dixit for a long time before Kejriwal snatched it and the Punjab government was also run by the Congress and now he has usurped them from there as well.
In Gujarat, Kejriwal will look to occupy the Congress's space, and, very interestingl,y the Congress is fast ceding its space. Interestingly in Gujarat, the talk should be about BJP and Congress but it is sounding like BJP and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Though I doubt in this election, AAP would be able to take the Congress's space but it would become a 5-7 seat party there.
