‘Everyone Wants It Passed’: Experts Predict Minimal Interference in Ukraine Aid if GOP Wins Midterms
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On Thursday, US President Joe Biden said he was “worried” about the future of US aid to Ukraine, which has been fighting Russian forces since February. However, experts told Sputnik that while GOP lawmakers might change their method, US backing for Ukraine is something both parties will continue.
Biden’s comment came after US House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who stands poised to become House Speaker if Republicans win a majority in the lower congressional chamber in the midterm elections next month, said he would be "unwilling to write a blank check" for Ukraine aid.
NBC News reported on Thursday that Democrats might try to rush passage of a massive $50 billion Ukraine aid bill due to such fears. That is close to the $65 billion Congress has allocated for Kiev since February, when Russia launched its special military operation in what was then eastern Ukraine with the aim of destroying neo-Nazi forces persecuting Russophones. Last month, four Ukrainian regions with Russian-speaking majorities voted to leave Ukraine and join the Russian Federation.
Professor David Woodard, Clemson University political scientist and former political consultant for Republican congressmen, told Sputnik on Friday that “many Republican legislators want to have their pictures taken in Ukraine next to American weapons shipped to destroy the Russians.”
“McCarthy was speaking to Biden and the Democrats, not to the Ukraine citizenry,” he asserted. “American weapons in Ukraine have been successful and they will continue to be sent, and even increased. Believe me when I say that many Republican legislators want to have their pictures taken in Ukraine next to American weapons shipped to destroy the Russians.”
“The passage of the Ukraine package is not a matter of having the votes. Everyone wants it passed, but the problem is who will get credit given the looming midterm vote. Republicans do not want Biden to call a press conference to brag about his aid accomplishment. Public opinion polls show that Americans now believe that Ukraine will win the war against Russia, but the unending conflict drains political support. Americans like quick wars and immediate victories,” Woodard said.
Ukrainian servicemen walk in front of armoured cars at Kiev airport on March 25, 2015 during a welcoming ceremony of the first US plane delivery of non-lethal aid, including 10 Humvee vehicles.
© AFP 2023 / SERGEI SUPINSKY
“Remember it was Gen. Douglas MacArthur who told the American people in the 1950 that "the troops will be home by Christmas." Instead, the [People’s Republic of China] massed a force that invaded before the end of the year and the troops stayed. That sudden offensive sent the US/UN troops reeling. The statement about Christmas became famous for what not to say about warfare.”
Woodard told Sputnik that while Americans might care about what’s going on in Ukraine, polls show their priorities are clearly focused on domestic concerns going into the November 8 elections.
“The rule of American politics - and politics in general - is that ‘domestic policy is more important than foreign policy.’ American voters feel the economy, inflation, rising crime and education disorder before they watch pictures about the disarray in Ukraine. The Ukraine package must be considered in the mix of other issues, but I believe the midterm result will have a good show of support for Ukraine. It will be politically popular to support and ship arms overseas after the vote.”
“The most dangerous issue in American politics is economic instability. It was that way in the 1930s, the 1950s and the period of instability in the post-Cold War era. Inflation poses a real danger to the ruling Democratic majority and I have told you before that I think the GOP could get 50 seats, well at least 30 seats, in the House,” Woodard added.
However, Timothy Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa, pointed out that there are indeed some Republicans who will have at least some objections to any new aid bills for Ukraine.
“There are two dimensions to this. One is a concern about getting the US more deeply involved in the war. Some Republicans are hesitant to get the US more involved given the outcome in the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts,” he told Sputnik. “A second concern of many Republicans is how increased spending is hurting the economy. There is an intersection between the two concerns, but it is hard to say whether it would cause enough Republicans to oppose additional aid so that it would be blocked.”
“The possibility of passing such an aid package will depend in part on what happens in the midterm elections. If Republicans take control of both chambers, it might reduce the possibility. Democrats might try to pass such a package in the ‘lame duck’ session (i.e., before the new Congress takes office in January), but some who were defeated might not be interested in doing much during that time,” he explained.
Volunteers fill up grocery carts with food for distribution into drive through vehicles at the St. Mary's Food Bank Wednesday, June 29, 2022, in Phoenix
© AP Photo / Ross D. Franklin
“Once the new Congress is in place, if Republicans are in control of one or both chambers, there may be enough of them who are particularly concerned with increased spending that they may try to delay or stop such a package. In addition, if the situation changes in Ukraine dramatically in the next few months, it could change the possibility or size of an aid package.”
Hagle said it was “hard to say” what specific policies Republicans might adopt if they win a majority.
“Even if Republicans gain control of both chambers of Congress, what they will be willing to do will depend on how large their majorities are and what the particular situation is in Ukraine at that time. Even so, one likely possibility is that the funds would be more targeted. By that I mean that the money or aid might be more specific or for more specific purposes. Some of this is done already, but more could probably be done to ensure that the aid is being used the way intended.”
By contrast, Woodard predicted that “if the Republicans win in November, they will rush to send aid to Ukraine.”
“Remember, these are conservatives, the people who hated the USSR in the Cold War, in Vietnam, in the European confrontations (remember Berlin) and they want to crush Putin in a war and prove that American ingenuity always was superior to Russian boasts,” he asserted. “They remember the ‘Space Race’ against Russia, the ‘Backfire bomber’ the Soviets designed to shoot down outdated B-52 bombers and they paid for dozens of other 'weapons systems' to oppose the USSR. Now, they have a chance to show what US technology can do - they can't wait to ship arms overseas.”
Dr. Harvey Schantz, professor of political science at the State University of New York at Plattsburgh, predicted that a GOP victory in November would mean that “Republicans will increase scrutiny of Biden Administration decision-making with respect to Ukraine, emphasizing the need for diplomatic solutions.”
However, Schantz said that much of the present ambiguity about that approach is derived from the contentious internal power struggle in the Republican Party.
“McCarthy’s number one personal goal is to be speaker of the House. In order to achieve this position, he needs the Republicans to gain a majority in the House. Quite likely, he needs to win a majority of the vote taken by secret ballot of the House Republican Conference meeting right after the midterm election, also likely but not inevitable. And finally, he needs a majority of the whole House of Representatives, most likely if he wins the nod of the Republican Conference,” Schantz said.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of Calif., right, accompanied by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of Calif., left, speaks during a Congressional Remembrance Ceremony marking the 20th anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, on Capitol Hill in Washington, Monday, Sept. 13, 2021.
© AP Photo / Andrew Harnik
However, he noted that former US President Donald Trump, who has been outspokenly against US aid to Ukraine as well as McCarthy’s leadership in the House, could “throw a monkey wrench” into the California lawmaker’s plans.
“Trump, if he so chooses, could make it difficult for McCarthy to win a majority of the Republican Conference. The Republicans least inclined to support further aid to Ukraine are those most closely associated with Donald Trump and the Freedom Caucus, including Jim Jordan of Ohio, Matt Gaetz of Florida and Lauren Boebert of Colorado,” he noted.
“McCarthy is hedging his bets by obscuring what he would do about aid to Ukraine in order to insure that he is elected speaker of the House, hoping to placate Republicans holding various views on this issue. McCarthy’s statement about no ‘blank check’ is far from saying he will oppose all future money to Ukraine, yet it signals sympathy with Republican colleagues who are against further aid and taps into the general Republican hesitation for increased foreign aid.“
“McCarthy is saying we must be prudent in how Congress spends scarce resources and should keep oversight of the money to make sure that expenditures are used for the intended purposes, ideas to which all Republicans subscribe,” Schantz added.
Schantz agreed, however, that Ukraine aid is a minor issue for US voters, citing a recent Morning Consult-Politico Poll showing just 12% of voters said “security issues” were their top set of issues, while 41% said “economic issues” were.
“While aid to Ukraine is a contentious issue, it is far from the number one concern of American voters as we head into the midterm elections,” he said. “Moreover, Ukraine aid is not an issue that Republicans want to emphasize in the campaign stretch run, preferring to focus upon economic concerns. Overall issues of foreign policy are of secondary concern among the American public.”
