Pollster: High Odds of GOP Taking Both Congress Chambers in 2022, Oval Office in 2024
18:33 GMT 23.10.2022 (Updated: 14:00 GMT 19.12.2022)
© AFP 2023 / Jewel Samad
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Democrats should brace themselves for a "mene-tekel-upharsin" moment during the November midterms. Poll numbers and trends rule out a potential Blue wave this autumn, according to Patrick Basham, head of Democracy Institute, a politically independent research organization based in Washington and London.
A number of polling and non-polling metrics indicate that Democrats are set to lose their slim majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, concluded US pollster Democracy Institute. What's more, a plurality of voters say Democrats represent the wealthy elite, whereas a majority say Republicans representing ordinary people, according to the pollster's head, Patrick Basham.
Sputnik: In your article for Chronicles Magazine you projected a 44-seat gain in the House of Representatives for the Republicans. What's your prognosis for the Senate? What are the GOP's odds of taking the upper chamber?
Patrick Basham: We are currently projecting that the Republicans will win the Senate. I think the Republicans have a 75 percent chance of gaining a majority of the seats in the upper chamber. We expect the Republicans to hold all of the seats they are currently defending, including the most competitive of those seats, such as Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. We think incumbent Senator Ron Johnson will be reelected in Wisconsin, JD Vance will win the open Republican Senate seat in Ohio, and Dr. Mehmet Oz will win the open Republican Senate seat in Pennsylvania.
We also project the Republicans to flip three seats currently held by the Democrats. If that happens, the Republicans will gain a 53 to 47 seat majority in the Senate. We project Adam Laxalt winning in Nevada, Blake Masters winning in Arizona, and Herschel Walker winning in Georgia.
It is possible that the Republicans may win one to three more seats than we are currently projecting. Republican candidates are currently running surprisingly competitive campaigns in New Hampshire and in Democratic strongholds of Colorado and Washington state. Although currently we do not project any of these three states to elect a Republican senator this year, it is certainly possible. Should the very good election for the Republicans we are expecting become an extremely good election for the Republicans, it would not be a shock if the Democrats lost one or more of these “safe” Senate seats.
Sputnik: If the GOP takes the House, will they launch impeachment proceedings against Joe Biden, in your opinion? Would it be a reasonable move if the Senate still remains in the Dems' hands? Would it be reasonable to oust Biden given that Vice President Kamala Harris would fill his shoes in the case that the GOP impeachment succeeds?
Patrick Basham: I expect a Republican-controlled House to initiate impeachment proceedings against Biden. The Republicans will see the impeachment effort as a reasonable response to Biden’s disastrous, arguably corrupt, presidency, and as political revenge for the Democrats’ two efforts to remove Trump from office via impeachment.
Although the Republicans will be able to pass an impeachment vote in the House against Biden, it is highly unlikely that the Senate, where the trial of Biden would take place, would vote to convict him, as the Republican majority will fall far short of the numbers required for conviction.
The Republicans face a dilemma regarding their pursuit of Biden’s removal of office. As Biden’s removal probably results in the ascension of Harris to the presidency, the Republicans would be responsible for putting in the Oval Office someone who they would expect to be an even worse president than Biden. The Republicans would argue a Harris presidency would equate to short term pain for long term gain. They believe, correctly, that 18 months of a Harris presidency would further erode her public support. Subsequently, Republicans expect that Harris would be a weaker presidential candidate than Biden in 2024, which is a logical expectation based upon our polling of the potential 2024 presidential match-ups.
21 October 2022, 18:22 GMT
Sputnik: How would the GOP-controlled (or semi-controlled) Congress and the Dems-controlled US administrations solve the pressing economic, social and political issues given that they pursue opposite agendas? Could it result in a deeper crisis? Or could Congress force the Biden administration to reverse its course and take a more moderate approach?
Patrick Basham: A Republican-led Congress matched with a Democratic presidency will not solve any of the pressing issues plaguing America. That is the bad news. The good news is that, while the Republicans will not be able to maneuver any of their major policy prescriptions around Biden’s veto pen, they will be able to put a stop to the ill-advised legislation that has been the Democrats’ specialty since January 2021. The net result will be a state of policy limbo until the 2024 presidential and congressional elections at the earliest.
Where the Republicans will be able to make progress is the initiation of investigations into respective policy and institutional crises. I expect the Republicans to commence congressional investigations of the following failures and scandals: the American withdrawal from Afghanistan; the business relationship between Biden, his son Hunter, and the Chinese and Ukrainian governments; the federal government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic; and the politicization of the Justice Department, especially the FBI.
20 October 2022, 16:23 GMT
Sputnik: What's your prognosis on the socio-economic situation in the US ahead of the 2024 presidential race? What are the odds of the majority of the US population voting Republican in 2024? Under what circumstances would the GOP have an advantage over the Dems?
Patrick Basham: Between now and the 2024 presidential race I expect America’s socio-economic situation to get worse, not better. It will take sensible policies supported by a large majority of Congress and the presidency to begin to rescue America from her current domestic and foreign policy troubles. Regrettably, that is highly unlikely to occur.
Our polling suggests there is an excellent chance the majority of American voters choose Republican congressional and senatorial candidates in 2024. An important reason for this prognosis is the continued movement of working class Hispanics (male and female) and working class male Black voters to the Republicans. This loss of minority voters makes it very hard for the Democrats to put together a large enough coalition of voters to win a majority of seats.
If the Republicans nominate Donald Trump as their next presidential candidate, our polling shows there is an excellent chance that not only Trump defeats his most likely Democratic opponents but he wins a majority of the popular vote, too. Two years from now, economic and social conditions in America may be so dire that any Republican candidate may comfortably defeat Biden, Harris, or whomever the Democrats nominate as their candidate. However, currently it is only Trump who is in position to almost guarantee that outcome.
