US Will Have to Lend Ear to Putin as New World Order Already Taking Shape, Academics Say
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Even though Vladimir Putin made it clear in his Valdai speech that Russia is not a natural "enemy" of the West and emphasized the importance of dialogue, the US mainstream press has again turned a deaf ear to the president's call, accusing Moscow of railing against Western elites and "reciting familiar grievances and criticisms."
"[Putin's] speech was very moderate and balanced," Joe Siracusa, US politics expert and professor of History and Diplomacy at Curtin University, Australia, told Sputnik. "If I would take from that speech an opportunity to re-engage with Russia, I think it was an opening. Moreover, not often another nation says that after eight months of conflict."
According to the academic, the US and NATO are fighting nothing short of a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine.
"I think Putin offered the olive branch, and I think [US President Joe] Biden should have taken it," he highlighted.
Still, Siracusa does not expect any response from the White House given that the pivotal midterm elections are due to take place in about seven or eight days. According to the professor, Biden does not want "to give the pro-Ukrainian forces and his party any ammunition to criticize him."
"The US leadership is confronted with pivotal midterm elections that make it very difficult for the leaders to engage now in a conflict solution path," echoed Paolo Raffone, a strategic analyst and director of the CIPI Foundation in Brussels. "After the elections, a new US domestic political scenario will emerge. Looking at presidential elections in 2024 it will be more possible to negotiate (if it scores in terms of votes)."
Despite the Western media's open snubbing of Russia's viewpoint, Raffone did not rule out that some level of contacts between Moscow and Washington could be taking place behind the scenes.
"Stakes are so high that any publicity may derail the possibility of an official dialogue," the strategic analyst presumed. "However, now each side is testing the other to obtain the maximum out of eventual negotiations. A face-saving process should satisfy each side in the conflict. It is not easy."
26 October 2022, 18:27 GMT
The beneficiaries of the Russo-American row over Ukraine are the Republican and Democratic establishment in Washington, its subservient media, and the US military-industrial complex, according to Siracusa.
"I don't think they represent the views of the ordinary American people," the academic emphasized.
Indeed, the September survey Data for Progress indicated that about 60% of American respondents would support the US engaging in diplomatic efforts "as soon as possible" to end the Ukraine standoff, even if that means Kiev having to make concessions to Russia. It appears that non-establishment GOP and Democratic lawmakers are hearing the voices of their constituents, as anti-war rhetoric has started to emerge both in Congress and in the speeches of congressional candidates.
"The West is divided," admitted Professor Robert Singh, a specialist in contemporary US politics at Birkbeck, University of London. "No one benefits from the current impasse, other than arms manufacturers."
According to Singh, cooperation between Russia and Western states is urgently needed given the number of climate, health, economic, social and geopolitical challenges. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden continues to see the situation "as a test of democratic virility" within the framework of a "democracy-autocracy" dichotomy.
"Whether this continues, and for how long, will depend heavily on the results of the US midterm elections and, above all, on the presidential election of 2024. But sooner or later, diplomacy will return, as it always has. Russia is simply too big and important to be ignored," argued Singh.
7 September 2022, 15:53 GMT
New World Order is Emerging
Whether one likes it or not, a new world order is already taking shape, according to Alexey Martynov, director of the International Institute of Recent States.
"I think that the conclusions from President Putin's speech not only can, but must be drawn. No wonder today all the world media's top news cited this address," Martynov said. "Of course, there are different interpretations with some trying to divert attention from conceptual issues to trifles, such as a playful mention of Liz Truss's unsuccessfully short premiership. But serious analysts are discussing the concept of a new world order. And it will develop, regardless of their positions. In what torments the new world order will be born depending on the level of development of different countries and on the position of their respective political elites."
During his speech, Vladimir Putin presented his political vision of the emerging world order, according to Alexander Konkov, associate professor at the Department of Political Analysis at Moscow State University.
"His address was by no means of conflictual nature," said Konkov. "On the contrary, it is an invitation to dialogue (…) with all countries, with all interested forces, but, of course, it is primarily focused on the collective West."
The US-led anti-Russia sanctions crusade has backfired on the Western coalition, with Japan being a glaring example, according to the Russian academics. They noted that it is the most vulnerable participant of the anti-Russian Western coalition, as its economy has suffered dramatically from severing ties with Moscow.
"Japan is vitally interested in finding some clues in order to preserve at least some ties [with Russia]," said Konkov. "An example is the retention of the share of Japanese business in the Sakhalin 1 and Sakhalin 2 projects. But being consolidated with the West, especially with the US, it is very difficult for Japan [to maintain relations with Moscow]."
27 October 2022, 08:37 GMT
Putin and Xi Offer Biden Peaceful Coexistence
Both Putin and, earlier, his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, have sent a clear signal to Washington and the collective West that room for dialogue still exists.
Earlier this week, Xi underscored that "China is willing to work with the United States to respect each other, coexist peacefully and achieve win-win cooperation, and find the right way for China and the US to get along in the new era" in a letter to the National Committee on US-China Relations.
On February 4, 2022, Putin and Xi released a joint statement outlining their vision of a more just multipolar world order. The leaders placed emphasis on the ongoing shift "towards redistribution of power in the world" and condemned "some actors representing but the minority on the international scale" who "advocate unilateral approaches to addressing international issues and resort to force."
17 October 2022, 17:11 GMT
Xi's latest comments came ahead of his potential meeting with President Joe Biden at a G20 Summit in November this year.
"The possible dialogue between China and the US, as suggested in the letter by Xi, is a possible path that could start a process to fix the economic reasons underlying the use of force," suggested Raffone. "If this will happen soon (maybe at G20), it may have a pivotal effect on the whole geopolitical confrontation, including in Ukraine."
For his part, Siracusa believes that a new Republican president – not necessarily Donald Trump – could push a reset button on relations with Moscow.
"The United States and Russia have great periods of conflict and great periods of cooperation," the professor said. "There's no reason why this era of peaceful coexistence shouldn't be returned, because the alternative is war. We can't afford a war. I mean, a war can be fought and it can be won. But there's going to be a lot of losers when it ends."
Putin delivered a speech on October 27 at the Valdai Discussion Forum emphasizing that the world is "standing on a historical frontier" with "the most dangerous, unpredictable and at the same time important decade since the end of the Second World War" ahead.
The Russian president drew attention to the "doctrinal crisis" of the "American-style" unipolar model and called upon the West to start talking to rising alternative centers of power. He noted that the "new world order" that replaces the current one "should be based on law, be free, original and fair."
Putin particularly underscored that "Russia, being an independent, distinct civilization, has never considered itself and does not consider itself an enemy of the West." There are "at least two Wests," according to the Russian president: one is traditional and culturally rich and another one aggressive and neocolonial, whose dictates Moscow will never accept.
