What Could India Expect From Jaishankar's Visit to Russia?
© AFP 2023 / YURI KADOBNOV
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India's FM S. Jaishankar embarked on a two-day visit to Moscow on Monday as part of the two countries’ regular high-level dialogue. He is the first senior Indian official to visit Russia since the launch of the special military operation in Ukraine. The Indian FM is set to hold talks with his counterpart Sergei Lavrov and Deputy PM Denis Manturov.
Last week, energy intelligence firm Vortexa reported that Russia became India’s largest supplier of crude in October, accounting for 22 percent of New Delhi’s overall oil imports.
India has spurned calls by Western countries to reduce reliance on Russian energy exports and has also been critical of rich countries for not understanding the adverse impacts of high commodity prices on the Global South.
Experts told Sputnik on Monday that India should look to further strengthen its economic engagement with Russia, particularly in the energy sector, during Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar’s two-day visit to Moscow.
A press statement by the Indian Foreign Ministry last week said that there would be discussion on regional and international issues during the visit.
It also said the Indian FM would take up issues related to bilateral economic cooperation when he meets Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Trade Minister Denis Manturov. The latter is Jaishankar’s counterpart in the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC).
The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Monday that discussions between the two countries would focus on bilateral cooperation in various international fora such as the G20 and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Ukraine crisis, the situations in Afghanistan and Syria, and the Iran Nuclear Deal.
Former Indian Ambassador Anil Trigunayat underlined that the IRIGC-TEC would take stock of the progress in achieving the bilateral economic objectives outlined during the annual summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi last December. Both leaders vowed to increase bilateral trade levels to $30 billion by 2025 by diversifying the trade basket.
While the two countries enjoy a special and privileged strategic partnership underpinned by close ties during the Cold War, defense exports from Moscow to New Delhi have dominated the economic aspect of the relationship.
“One of the weak links in the relationship has been economic engagement and volume and [the] extent of it, which is being addressed,” Trigunayat said. The ex-diplomat noted that the economic ties have expanded since the beginning of Russian special military operation in Ukraine in February.
4 November 2022, 16:26 GMT
Trigunayat stated that one could also expect New Delhi to increase its investment in Russia’s hydrocarbon sector in order to ensure its energy security in view of high energy prices caused by Western efforts to phase out Russian crude and gas from the market.
Sumant Swain, deputy director of the New Delhi-based think tank Eurasian Foundation, highlights that India-Russia trade had increased by around 439 percent since February.
”There is a huge interest among Russian businesses to deepen cooperation with India. There has been an increase in frequency of visits by Russian businessman exploring opportunities in India since February,” Swain said.
The think-tanker expects both governments to review the progress in rupee-ruble trade in order to bolster economic linkages and meet the trade targets set by the leadership of the two countries.
India-Russia Ties No Longer ‘Unidimensional’
Niranjan Marjani, an Indian geopolitical analyst, noted that the economic ties between New Delhi and Moscow are no longer “unidimensional” and dominated solely by defense deals.
“The Russian energy supplies to India have emerged as another key pillar of the relationship. This also serves the interests of both the countries in diversifying their trade away from defense,” he said.
Marjani reckoned that the discussions could revolve around agreeing to a common agenda for the G20, with a leadership-level meeting scheduled to take place on 16-17 November in Bali, Indonesia.
The G20 meetings under Indonesian presidency this year have been marred by disagreements among member states, as finance ministers of the grouping failed to release a common statement after their meeting in April, owing to the Ukraine issue.
The G20 foreign ministers' meeting in Bali in April also ended on a contentious note, as the top diplomats refused to pose for a “family photo” due to differences between Russia and the West.
Food and energy security are expected to figure on the top of the G20 agenda when India takes over the G20 from Indonesia starting December, as per officials.
