Europe Only Supports Ukraine Because of US Pressure, Scholar Says
16:18 GMT 13.11.2022 (Updated: 16:47 GMT 13.11.2022)
© AFP 2023 / DANIEL LEAL
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After the US midterms passed, the White House announced another military package for Ukraine. However, the US public seems to be torn on the issue, growing tired of pumping money and weapons into Kiev.
Sputnik discussed Washington's backing of Kiev and any possible policy reversal with Joe Siracusa, a US politics expert and professor of history and diplomacy at Curtin University, Australia.
Sputnik: What's your take on the attitude prevalent in the US and its main allies that aid - both financial and military - to Ukraine must continue?
Joe Siracusa: I think the Republicans were hesitating before the election. There's only so much you can give to another nation before you empty out your own arsenal. And it was quite clear if there had been a big Republican victory. Marjorie Greene's comment about there would be no more money for Ukraine, in fact, she had a wonderful comment. She said that as far as she is concerned and a number of Republicans are concerned, Ukraine is not an ally and Russia is not an enemy. And that's kind of where it's headed.
The serious thing here, the really serious thing is, a number of Republicans - not unlike Richard Nixon in 1972 when he was trying to get out of the war in Vietnam - decided to push the diplomatic solution (Nixon in those days actually had to exclude South Vietnam because they wouldn't sign the document), so I think the direction of the Republican Party is to seek a diplomatic solution at the exclusion of Ukraine at the negotiating table.
This is an important development. All the economic problems that the Republicans or the American people had during the campaign will not be addressed - high inflation, the economy and all the rest of it. They're going to take money away from Ukraine, not because they're trying to punish Ukraine. They're going to take it away because Ukraine looks like it's in no hurry to come to a diplomatic solution. And for a lot of these people, ending the American proxy war in Ukraine with all the risks that it entails with Moscow is far more important than following Zelensky's game plan.
I think the fact that the issues were raised during the campaign - and they very clearly stated that if there's a Republican victory in both houses, one leading senator said that there won't be another penny going towards Ukraine - the point is that the Republicans will be seeking more of a diplomatic solution. They're going to put enormous pressure on the Biden administration to go down the negotiating track.
You know the things that President Putin pointed out a couple of weeks ago in his speech that he doesn't have a quarrel with the American people, American politicians, he only has a quarrel with the ruling elite - I think that's going to happen. But it's not because they dislike Ukraine. They supported them to this stage.
On the other hand, I think America is looking for, to use that old expression, it's looking for the off ramp, it's looking for a diplomatic solution to a problem that won't go away. I mean, Ukraine cannot fight forever, the Russian nation can go on for a long time. Keep in mind that we were in Vietnam for 10 years before we finally got out of the place. And so, whatever the reasons were for American support in the first place, and they've sort of dried up, so Americans are looking for the honorable exit.
Ukrainian servicemen load a truck with the FGM-148 Javelin, American man-portable anti-tank missile provided by US to Ukraine as part of a military support, upon its delivery at Kiev's airport Borispol on February 11,2022
© AFP 2023 / SERGEI SUPINSKY
Sputnik: What will change, if anything, after all votes are counted in the US, and it transpires that the Republicans have more clout in Congress?
Joe Siracusa: Republicans will win the House of Representatives. They're in control of the purse. If you don't control the House and all you need is 218 votes, you don't need a red wave, you don't need a 30, 40-seat majority. All you need is one vote. And they got the 218. And they can make sure that the House of Representatives, where all money bills originate, will not give Ukraine another penny. Winning the House is more important than winning the Senate. It's in the House of Representatives that the Constitution guarantees that money will originate, money bills. So the House is very, very important. And Congressman Kevin McCarthy [Republican Representative for California’s 23rd Congressional district and House Minority Leader] is going to be very, very important after this. But I think the mood in America has changed. There is no doubt in my mind, there is going to be a Republican victory in the House.
They might even flip the Senate. You’ve got to keep in mind this business about the Republicans did not get the big landslide and all that. That was all Democratic advertising. The Democrats won the Senate at the end of the day. Look we did pretty well - Republicans didn't get the landslide, that landslide stuff came from Democratic polling. So in a way, it's a con. I don't believe any of that polling, as a matter of fact, because the polling that we read about in the newspapers, the New York, CNN polls, CBS polls, and the rest of it is not the same kind of in-house polling that the Republicans and the Democrats do. They know things.
And at the end of the day, the only thing that saved the Democrats was the abortion Bill, because I think millions of American women came out to vote and they wanted to keep continued access to abortion available to them. I think the Supreme Court really sort of provided an election winner here, or at least a great deal of support for the Democratic Party. They didn't mean to. But I think it's a good example of the interference of the Supreme Court into American politics.
Sputnik: We hear an increasing number of voices from the US on limiting aid to Ukraine - for instance, Paul Gosar recently. Do you expect this trend to continue, and possibly spread to Europe?
Joe Siracusa: If the Americans pull back, the Europeans will hesitate. The Europeans are only supporting Ukraine because the Americans have insisted on it. NATO's not an equal alliance, it's "follow the leader". And as long as America is taking the lead, they feel compelled to fall into lockstep. The Europeans are not going to help the Ukrainians if the Americans decide to change strategy. And there'd be a lot of people in the European Union who are cold this winter, who will think the idea of a diplomatic solution.
But the thing is that if the Americans are not on board, the European Union or NATO are not on board and they're playing "follow the leader".
Even if it looks like a Republican might replace Biden in 2024. Now mind you, if there had been a huge Republican victory, I think there would have been a very sharp break on aid to Ukraine. As it is, there is going to be a brake on the aid and there's going to be a public discussion about the virtue of a diplomatic solution, because at the end of the day, there is going to be a diplomatic solution to what's going on between Russia and Ukraine. I feel - and people in my field feel - that it's better to do it sooner rather than later. There is no virtue in watching thousands of more people die for a solution that's available tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. I feel very strongly about that.
US President Joe Biden speaks about student debt relief at Delaware State University in Dover, Delaware, on October 21, 2022
© AFP 2023 / OLIVER CONTRERAS
Sputnik: Hungary has just blocked €18Bln ($18Bln) Ukraine aid - what do you make of the "fatigue" from the Ukraine conflict in the EU, especially against the backdrop of the economic and energy crisis?
Joe Siracusa: Europe is entitled to their own opinions. Europe has never been in lockstep. After the end of the Cold War, that unity of Europe ended and there's kind of a phony unity that replaces, sort of a pretend unity. I mean, I'm not surprised the Hungarians and the Italians and others will go their own way. They have every right to do that. And I've never been convinced that the European Union was really cohesive, or NATO or the European Union was a cohesive body. You got 30 countries in NATO and 27 countries in the European Union. And to do anything, you need what? You need a unanimous vote. Any one of them can back out and stop anybody from doing anything else.
It's kind of like the old 17th-century Polish Diet, or nothing got done. And they were run over three times by the neighbors. I'm not surprised by that. It's going to be more of it. And I think every nation in Europe is going to do what they think they have to do to survive the winter and to get on with life. I mean, they're not committed to a life and death blueprint. Europe's not going down the rabbit hole because somebody wants to support Zelensky. And I think Zelensky really expects this to happen. That's why he was on CNN touting the importance of this solidarity, and unanimity because he knows it's disappearing.
Sputnik: We've recently heard President Biden saying that Zelensky was not "grateful enough" for the aid which has already been provided - do you believe there will be the same sentiments in Europe?
Joe Siracusa: Yes, I do believe that. We grow up in American high schools with famous essays by famous American writers. And we all grew up with the famous essay by Ralph Waldo Emerson that "you never forgive the giver". That is, no matter who gives you what, you sort of resent it at the end of the day. Even the Ukrainians resent what was given to them in some sectors, they don't think enough was given and the fact that the Americans are trying to track the equipment that's going over there - and keep in mind, the number one issue in Ukraine-American relations before this conflict broke out was the deepness of the corruption in Ukraine. Who's to say that a lot of this American equipment isn't going to wind up on the black market? They know that.
Ukrainian and US servicemen during Fearless Guardian 2015, a joint training exercise at the Yavorovsky training ground.
© Sputnik
I think at the end of the day, Americans will call a halt to it. And I think a number of Ukrainians will exhibit some resentment to the aid given to them because they'll say it wasn't enough. I think Zelensky wanted the Americans to get their monthly public service and army salaries. He wanted $5Bln to keep the country going. And the American people heard him say it. What country is going to pay for soldiers and public servants endlessly? The idea of the United States Treasury printing money, $5Bln a month to pay for Ukrainian civil service or public service, that's nuts, that's unrealistic thinking.
The reason that Zelensky went on television is because he knows that there's something wrong with this picture and he knows that the Americans are going to pull their horns, and that they're going to do a little recalibrating. And the Republicans want to make it very clear they want to get this problem settled, get on to other important issues like climate change and arms control and the rest of it And so, I think there are people in the American Congress right now, who want to reset that. They want to recalibrate. They want to reset the dial.
