Sturgeon's Departure Leaves Scottish National Party Without Obvious Successor, Experts Say
07:28 GMT 18.02.2023 (Updated: 15:25 GMT 28.05.2023)
© AFP 2023 / ANDY BUCHANAN / Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at a press conference in Edinburgh
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MOSCOW (Sputnik), Kirill Krasilnikov - Outgoing Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon's time in office is marked by progressive rhetoric that has not been fully matched by tangible public policy results and her departure leaves ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) without a clear leader, experts told Sputnik.
On Wednesday, Sturgeon announced her plans to step down as the first minister and SNP leader. She will remain in office until her successor is elected.
With eight years in office, Sturgeon is leaving as Scotland's longest-serving first minister as well as the first woman entrusted with such authority. Since assuming power in 2014, Sturgeon butted heads with Westminster on multiple occasions, steered her country through the COVID-19 pandemic and maintained her party's grip on Scotland's politics.
The matter of independence was particularly important, especially in the last stretch of Sturgeon's rule when she proposed a new vote on Scotland's independence to be held on October 19, 2023. Former UK prime ministers Boris Johnson and Liz Truss stated that they would not allow a second referendum since the Scottish people had already decided to stay within the United Kingdom in a 55-to-45 percent vote in 2014.
In late November, the UK Supreme Court ruled that it was illegal to hold a referendum on the independence of Scotland without the consent of the UK government. Sturgeon proclaimed that the United Kingdom's next general election will serve as a de facto referendum on the issue.
"Nicola Sturgeon can certainly boast achievements as First Minister, and these relate to her competence as a leader and her good communication skills. She has been incredibly successful electorally. In her eight years as First Minster she has fought eight sets of elections, and the SNP has dominated," Lynn Bennie, a reader in politics at the University of Aberdeen, said.
At the same time, when it comes to her public policy record, Sturgeon's achievements are less than stellar, according to the expert.
"She talks a progressive/social democratic language but the evidence on public policy impact is debatable at best. On poverty, attainment, education, health, the economy, the SNP government has faced many challenges and not made a great deal of progress," Bennie explained.
17 January 2023, 12:26 GMT
Expert suggests that Sturgeon may also have gone as far as possible in terms of reaching a sustained majority support for independence among her fellow Scots, which has increased from about 30% before 2014 to 50% now.
Gregor Gall, an affiliate research associate at the University of Glasgow, expressed a similar sentiment with regard to the SNP and Scottish government's track record under Sturgeon, who may have talked a great game without doing enough to back it up.
"Sturgeon's greatest achievement has been to maintain the pretence that the SNP and her Scottish Governments are much more radical and progressive than they actually are. Her greatest failure has not been to put meat on the bones of that narrative," Gall stated.
He went on to say that Sturgeon stepping down is a setback for those working toward the goal of Scottish independence and "whether that will open up space for newer and stronger forces outside the SNP and its leadership remains to be seen."
Succession
As Sturgeon is about to bow out from office, the main question now is who will take up her mantle after she is gone, with both experts noting the role she played within the SNP, will Gall citing the party's "extremely centralised and hierarchical nature" as the reason for the lack of an obvious successor.
"Her [Sturgeon's] dominance put everyone else out of the limelight and prevented any succession planning," Gall concluded.
Bennie, for her part, suggested that there will be an open competition for leadership with various candidates as "there appears to be no obvious successor, which is a sign of how much Sturgeon dominated the party." She also highlighted the issue of independence as a factor in the selection process.
7 October 2022, 13:25 GMT
"Clearly the contest will involve debate on the strategic route to independence, and there are different views on the election as de facto referendum idea but it’s easy to overestimate SNP divisions on the strategic way forward," Bennie said, adding that "the main challenge is increasing support for independence, increasing pressure on the Westminster government to concede a referendum."
Bennie continued by saying that it is not known whether or not the support for independence and the SNP has plateaued, adding that while there has been a small increase in support for Labour in Scotland it is more to do with the unpopularity of the Tories at Westminster.
"For the moment, I think we have to assume that the SNP will remain strong. And on the party’s broader agenda and identity, I wouldn’t expect much change to what has been a winning formula," she concluded.
