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Swedish PM Admits 'Increased Probability' Finland Enters NATO First

© AP Photo / JOHANNA GERONFlags of Finland, left, NATO and Sweden
Flags of Finland, left, NATO and Sweden - Sputnik International, 1920, 15.03.2023
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Swedish opposition leader, former prime minister and top Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson denounced this development as adverse for Sweden, a setback for the alliance's "open doors policy" and a hindrance to further military cooperation between the two Nordic nations.
It has become increasingly likely that Finland will join NATO without Sweden, despite initial plans and pledges to "walk this path together," Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has acknowledged during a press conference.
"The overall assessment is that the probability of this has increased," the Moderate Party leader said, admitting that it was "not out of the question" that Sweden and Finland would ratify their membership in different stages.
The NATO negotiations between Sweden, Turkiye and Finland resumed at the end of February, but so far the countries have yet to reach a solution. Recently, however, Ankara once again hinted that it may be prepared to approve only Finland's application.
Kristersson emphasized that the decision rests in Turkiye's hands and ventured that Sweden is ready to handle a situation where Finland enters NATO without Sweden. Kristersson assured that this should not be a long-term problem and referred to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg as saying it is not a question of whether Sweden joins the alliance but when.
This idea was echoed by Sweden's chief negotiator in the NATO process, Oscar Stenstrom. He said Sweden has had "confidential talks" with Turkiye, but Ankara believes that Stockholm still has some way to go to fulfil the Madrid agreement signed last year, particularly with regards to measures against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which Turkiye considers a terrorist organization.

"The corresponding dissatisfaction was not expressed against Finland, which can be interpreted as Turkiye thinking that Finland has come much further in fulfilling its part of the memorandum," Stenstrom said.

This announcement has been slammed by Kristersson's predecessor as the country's prime minister, opposition leader and top Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson.
"It is clear that it would not be good for Sweden. It would also be a setback for NATO's 'open doors policy,'" Andersson told Swedish media.
She also ventured that this could endanger military cooperation between Finland and Sweden.
Local pundits, including Kjell Engelbrekt, a professor of political science at the Swedish Defense Academy, concurred that the current level of security cooperation between the Nordic nations would have to be disrupted, if Finland goes on and joins NATO alone. Engelbrekt also ventured that this would leave Sweden more vulnerable to influence operations and military attacks.
Kurdish protesters demonstrate on their way to the Kurdish spring festival Newroz with placards reading No to dictatorship and the portrait of the leader of the Kurdistan PKK Workers' Party, Abdullah Ocalan in the city center of Frankfurt am Main, western Germany, on March 18, 2017 - Sputnik International, 1920, 27.02.2023
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Sweden and Finland applied for NATO membership in May 2022, several months after Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine. However, both of their membership bids were blocked by Turkiye, which accused Stockholm and Helsinki of leniency toward "terrorists," referring to several Kurdish organizations with a presence in the Nordic countries. Turkiye subsequently lifted its objections after the Madrid summit in June 2022, where a security memorandum that unblocked the process of accession to the alliance was signed.
Nevertheless, the accession process came to another standstill in early 2023 following a Quran-burning in Sweden alongside other provocations against Turkish leadership. Then, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed that Stockholm should not count on Ankara's support for its NATO bid. Turkiye has even been discussing with fellow NATO members the possibility of approving Finland's application separately — a perspective both Finnish leadership and populations are increasingly warming up to.
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