OPEC Maintains Forecast for Global Oil Demand Growth in 2023 by 2.3Mln Bpd
11:38 GMT 13.04.2023 (Updated: 14:18 GMT 13.04.2023)
© AP Photo / Lisa Leutner
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MOSCOW (Sputnik) - OPEC maintains its forecast for the global oil demand growth in 2023 by 2.3 million barrels per day to 101.9 million barrels per day, according to its fresh report published on Thursday.
"For 2023, it [world oil demand] is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d... For 2023, world oil demand is forecast to average 101.9 mb/d. However, this is subject to many uncertainties, including the trend and pace of economic activity in both OECD and non-OECD countries," the report said.
In March, OPEC expected global oil demand at 101.9 million barrels per day. In April, the forecast was slightly updated to 101.89 million barrels per day.
OPEC has maintained its forecast for Russia's oil and condensate production in 2023 at the level of 10.3 million barrels per day and still expects it to decline by 750,000 barrels per day, according to the report.
"For 2023, Russian liquids production is forecast to drop by 0.75 mb/d to average 10.3 mb/d. It is worth noting that this expected contraction accounts for the recently announced additional voluntary production adjustments to the end of 2023. Annual growth is remained unchanged from the previous monthly assessment. In addition to a number of planned start-ups this year by Lukoil, Gazprom, Novatek, Sigma Energy and others," the report read.
OPEC has slightly downgraded its forecast for oil production in the United States in 2023 to 12.57 million barrels per day, expects growth by 690,000 barrels per day to 12.6 million barrels per day, according to report.
According to OPEC's report, oil production in the United States in 2023 will amount to 12.57 million barrels per day.
According to OPEC's report, oil production in the United States in 2023 will amount to 12.57 million barrels per day.
"The lower output anticipation for the rest of the year is mainly due to lower-than-expected upstream activities in 1Q23. Better drilling activity and fewer supply chain/logistical issues in the prolific Permian, Eagle Ford and Bakken shale sites are still assumed for the rest of 2023. Given a sound level of oil field drilling and well completions, crude oil output is anticipated to increase by 0.7 mb/d y-o-y to average 12.6 mb/d," the report said.
OPEC oil production decreased by 86,000 barrels per day in March month-on-month and reached 28.8 million barrels per day, according to its fresh report.
"OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources," the report read.
According to OPEC data, the alliance's compliance with the oil production cut deal was fulfilled by 182% in March, with the organization cutting the production by 1.04 million barrels per day on top of obligations.
"OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources," the report read.
According to OPEC data, the alliance's compliance with the oil production cut deal was fulfilled by 182% in March, with the organization cutting the production by 1.04 million barrels per day on top of obligations.
OPEC has slightly downgraded its forecast for oil production for 2023 outside the organization by 10,000 barrels per day to 67.19 million barrels per day, according to a fresh monthly report.
According to the report, the forecast of the indicator in the first quarter of 2023 increased by 510,000 barrels per day compared to the March estimate, to 67.58 million barrels per day, in the second quarter – by 30,000 barrels per day to 66.71 million. The forecast for the third quarter was downgraded by 290,000 barrels per day to 66.9 million barrels per day, and for the fourth quarter – by 300,000 barrels per day to 67.57 million.
It is forecast that the largest drivers of supply growth in 2023 will be the United States, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, the largest decline in production is expected in Norway and Thailand.
According to the report, the forecast of the indicator in the first quarter of 2023 increased by 510,000 barrels per day compared to the March estimate, to 67.58 million barrels per day, in the second quarter – by 30,000 barrels per day to 66.71 million. The forecast for the third quarter was downgraded by 290,000 barrels per day to 66.9 million barrels per day, and for the fourth quarter – by 300,000 barrels per day to 67.57 million.
It is forecast that the largest drivers of supply growth in 2023 will be the United States, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, the largest decline in production is expected in Norway and Thailand.
3 April 2023, 23:36 GMT
The commercial oil stocks in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) increased by 14.1 million barrels in February and exceeded the five-year average by 18 million barrels, OPEC's fresh report said.
"Preliminary February 2023 data sees total OECD commercial oil stocks up m-o-m by 14.1 mb. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average," the report said.
According to the report, OECD crude stocks stood at 1.434 billion barrels in February.
"OECD commercial crude stocks stood at 1,434 mb in February. This is 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago and 49 mb above the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average," the report said.
"Preliminary February 2023 data sees total OECD commercial oil stocks up m-o-m by 14.1 mb. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average," the report said.
According to the report, OECD crude stocks stood at 1.434 billion barrels in February.
"OECD commercial crude stocks stood at 1,434 mb in February. This is 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago and 49 mb above the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average," the report said.
