China Comes First: Why NATO's Office in Japan Faces Uncertainty
© AFP 2023 / Yoshikazu TSUNO
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Ahead of the NATO summit in Lithuania, it was reported that the Western military alliance is ready to postpone a decision on the establishment of a liaison office in Tokyo, possibly until the fall or later.
Given the pushback on NATO's new Tokyo liaison office, Sputnik looked into which country in the alliance is "slowing down" the move and why this country’s motives do not align with the current ambitions of Tokyo, which seeks closer integration with the bloc and is gradually becoming its unofficial ally in Asia.
It is well known that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was the driving force behind the establishment of a NATO office in Tokyo. In April, however, French President Emmanuel Macron voiced his opposition to the idea, expressing concerns about a potential backlash from Beijing.
The fact that the French president's position has not changed in recent months indicates that relations with China are much more important to Paris than those of Tokyo, believes Russian expert Pavel Timofeev, head of department at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
"France is trying not to escalate relations with China, understanding that it perceives Western Europe as merely a junior partner of the United States," the expert said.
Meanwhile, according to Timofeev, Paris wants to show Beijing that the European Union is an independent player in the region and does not always follow Washington's policies. Although France is in solidarity with the White House's position on Taiwan and North Korea and criticizes China for alleged human rights violations, the latter is too attractive as an economic partner to rock the boat too much.
Therefore, for several years, France has been trying to create a group of European countries capable of actively manifesting itself in the Indo-Pacific region independently of the United States.
"The goal is to present itself as a 'third way' and a center of power in the Asia-Pacific region. However, Paris has not been very successful in doing so. Nevertheless, President Macron understands that France will not have a good dialogue with China if it abandons such attempts and aspirations. That is why, unlike Washington, France is trying to maintain a more restrained course with Beijing," Pavel Timofeev noted.
According to the expert, China is economically important for France, so Macron does not intend to worsen relations with it for the sake of opening a NATO liaison office in Tokyo.
Macron's announcement just before the NATO summit serves as a strong signal that he intends to draw attention to the fractures already emerging within the upcoming summit, said K J Noh, a journalist and political analyst specializing in Asia-Pacific geopolitics. This move suggests his intention to publicly highlight these divisions before addressing them directly with the other participants.
“It’s not just Macron who is actually opposed to the Japanese, there are other NATO countries. And Macron's reasoning is impeccable. Article 6 [of the NATO Charter] states that Article 5 covers only territories in Europe, North America and islands north of the Tropic of Cancer," K J Noh noted.
Previously, Macron, accompanied by a number of French business leaders, visited China to meet with President Xi Jinping. The exceptionally warm reception allowed the European country to move forward with business deals, including a major order for Airbus Europe.
11 May 2023, 14:24 GMT
Regarding the potential response from Japan to the "postponement" in opening a NATO office in Tokyo, France shares numerous overlapping political concerns with the country.
However, Paris seems to be currently prioritizing economic projects with China over those with Japan, as China's status as a growing rival to the United States is gaining prominence, making it increasingly important for Franco-Chinese relations. In contrast, this particular factor is absent in the context of relations with Japan, the Russian expert noted.
"Accordingly, Paris is not overly concerned about Tokyo's reaction. Of course, Japan has a reason to be 'offended', but it will most likely refrain from creating a scandal because of France's opposition. After all, the Japanese themselves understand the immense economic importance of China and that the latter is much more important for the EU than Japan," Timofeev said.
A source close to the French president's office told journalists that the opening of a NATO office in the Indo-Pacific region is not considered advantageous at the moment. As a result, the Western military alliance is expected to make a final decision on establishing the office by the end of the year.
