https://sputnikglobe.com/20230817/fed-says-probability-of-avoiding-us-recession-through-2024-has-grown-noticeably-1112660492.html
Fed Says Probability of Avoiding US Recession Through 2024 Has Grown Noticeably
Fed Says Probability of Avoiding US Recession Through 2024 Has Grown Noticeably
Sputnik International
The Federal Reserve said that the odds that the United States will enter a recession in 2024 has dropped significantly, though many are still expecting slower than expected growth over the next two years.
2023-08-17T03:15+0000
2023-08-17T03:15+0000
2023-08-17T03:15+0000
economy
us federal open market committee (fomc)
federal reserve
recession
economy
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"The probability of avoiding a recession through 2024 grew noticeably, but the staff continued to expect that real GDP growth in 2024 and 2025 would run below their estimate of potential output growth," the Fed said in Wednesday’s published minutes of the discussions on the economy and interest rates held by its policy-makers last month. A survey publicly carried out by the Fed continued to place a significant probability of a recession occurring by the end of 2024, according to the minutes from the July meeting of the central bank’s policy-making Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC. Most recent stress-test results at large banks indicated that they were well positioned as well in withstanding a severe recession, the minutes said. Adding to that, the survey’s respondents anticipated that both headline and core personal consumption expenditures inflation were expected to decline to 2% per annum by the end of 2025, meeting the central bank’s cherished target. Inflation hit four-decade highs of more than 9% in June 2022, largely due to the trillions of dollars of relief spending by the government on the 2020 coronavirus outbreak. To counter the runaway inflation, the Fed embarked on its most aggressive rate hike campaign in more than 20 years, adding 5.25% to rates which previously stood at just 0.25%. While the government’s pandemic-related spending has long ended, jobs and wage growth have continued to fuel inflation, prompting the Fed to say keep adding to rates until inflation returns to its target.
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federal reserve survey, will the us enter a recession, us economy in the coming years, will the economy collapse, is recession inevitable?
federal reserve survey, will the us enter a recession, us economy in the coming years, will the economy collapse, is recession inevitable?
Fed Says Probability of Avoiding US Recession Through 2024 Has Grown Noticeably
WASHINGTON (Sputnik) - The Federal Reserve said the odds of avoiding a US recession through all of next year has grown meaningfully, though its staff was still bracing for lower than expected growth over the next two years.
"The probability of avoiding a recession through 2024 grew noticeably, but the staff continued to expect that real GDP growth in 2024 and 2025 would run below their estimate of potential output growth," the Fed said in Wednesday’s published minutes of the discussions on the economy and interest rates held by its policy-makers last month.
A survey publicly carried out by the Fed continued to place a significant probability of a recession occurring by the end of 2024, according to the minutes from the July meeting of the central bank’s policy-making Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC.
"However, the timing of a recession expected by survey respondents was again pushed later, and the probability of avoiding a recession through 2024 grew noticeably," the Fed said, indicating that the outcome of the survey and opinion of its staff were similar on this.
Most recent stress-test results at large banks indicated that they were well positioned as well in withstanding a severe recession, the minutes said.
Adding to that, the survey’s respondents anticipated that both headline and core personal consumption expenditures inflation were expected to decline to 2% per annum by the end of 2025, meeting the central bank’s cherished target.
Inflation hit four-decade highs of more than 9% in June 2022, largely due to the trillions of dollars of relief spending by the government on the 2020 coronavirus outbreak. To counter the runaway inflation, the Fed embarked on its most aggressive rate hike campaign in more than 20 years, adding 5.25% to rates which previously stood at just 0.25%. While the government’s pandemic-related spending has long ended, jobs and wage growth have continued to fuel inflation, prompting the Fed to say keep adding to rates until inflation returns to its target.
