Good Gotland! NATO Militarization Risks Putting Swedish Island in Nuclear Crosshairs
© AFP 2023 / JONATHAN NACKSTRAND
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Sweden’s prime minister has told British media he’s “open” to the idea of the militarization of the strategic Baltic Sea island of Gotland, and that this is “one obvious thing to be discussed with our new NATO allies.” Veteran military expert Vasily Dandykin told Sputnik what Stockholm’s approach could mean for Russia, and for Gotland’s residents.
NATO planners and Washington-based geopolitics policymakers have salivated for years over the strategic potential of the Baltic Sea island of Gotland, with the massive, 3,184 square km Swedish territory seen as a potential “game changer” in the regional security competition with Russia, offering Sweden a “commanding view” of the Baltic and “an advantage to influence air and maritime traffic.”
NATO has been strengthening its relations with Sweden since the mid-1990s, using its ‘Partnership for Peace’ program as a Trojan horse through which to gradually ply Stockholm and other countries in the Nordic and Eastern Europe toward bloc membership. In 2022, following the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis into a full-on proxy war between NATO and Russia, the alliance received a once-in-a-lifetime chance to push Sweden and Finland to break with decades (and in Sweden’s case, centuries) of neutrality and join the Western bloc.
Soon after, in the summer of 2022, Sweden hosted NATO’s BALTOPS 22 exercises on Gotland Island, with US troops drilling on the island, and the drills – which included over 45 ships, more than 75 aircraft and 7,500 troops, led by the US Sixth Fleet.
Sweden formally joined NATO on March 7. In a Financial Times piece published Tuesday, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson expressed Stockholm’s openness to “reinforcing” Gotland’s defenses, in a nod to NATO plans for the Baltic.
“That is one obvious thing to be discussed with our new NATO allies. Gotland has always been important…That will be one of the many things to discuss,” Kristersson said. “There are quite a few things in terms of how to deploy our resources, where to focus the most. And obviously everything to do with the Baltic Sea is such an obvious candidate. That goes in terms of presence on Gotland, but also in terms of surveillance, in terms of submarine capabilities.”
What Would Gotland’s Militarization Mean for Russia?
Gotland is “the biggest island in the Baltic Sea, and situated in a very advantageous position: 380 km to Kaliningrad,” Vasily Dandykin, a veteran Russian military analyst and retired Russian Navy Captain 1st Rank, told Sputnik.
Dandykin said the existence of plans to strengthen its Gotland garrison could be predicted based off the growing rhetoric in Stockholm about a “Russian threat,” and expects these plans to include a shoring up of naval forces, coastal troops and intelligence gathering capabilities.
“In any case, the size of this island makes it possibly to put aviation, airfields, and naval bases” in service of “the dream of both NATO bloc and the Americans to turn the Baltic Sea into a NATO sea,” the observer said. “We understand what kind of threat this is – a threat to our communications,” including to Kaliningrad, Dandykin stressed.
Dandykin did not rule out potential “provocations” by NATO in the Baltic, with Gotland expected to play a “big role” amid the Western bloc’s ongoing effort to militarize the region.
Map of the Baltic Sea and the countries of the region.
© Photo : Norman Einstein
In the event of direct aggression, Russia would be forced to respond accordingly, Dandykin warned. “The Swedes, who recently became new NATO members, and everyone else involved should understand this. In any case, more intensive [Russian] exercises will take place in the Baltic. We have to understand that Finland too is already a NATO member. Therefore, our actions will be adequate – both from Kaliningrad, where the Baltic Fleet is based, and from the rest of Russia. If attacked, we could use nuclear weapons. The situation is not an easy one, and not just in the Baltic and other regions, but in the Arctic.”
“For our part, we will monitor closely what Sweden does in this aggressive military bloc, how it will implement its membership in practice, and accordingly, proceeding from this, will formulate our response policy, steps taken in response of a military-technical and other nature in order to mitigate threats to Russia’s national security,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on February 28, on the eve of Sweden’s entry into NATO.
“Of course, NATO troops will operate in Sweden. But we do not want permanent NATO bases,” Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom said Tuesday in an interview with Turkish media. The same goes for nuclear weapons, which Billstrom said Stockholm sees no reason to host “in peacetime.”
