Israeli-Lebanon War to ‘Alter the Entire Middle East’ -Frm. State Dep. Analyst
© AP Photo / Bilal Hussein
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On Tuesday and Wednesday, Israel exploded thousands of communication devices in Lebanon injuring thousands and killing dozens, including civilians. The Shia movement in Lebanon Hezbollah called the attack a violation of its sovereignty and an act of war. The region seems to be a hair’s breadth away from full-scale war.
The Israeli war in Lebanon threatens to reshape the entire Middle East as Israel attacks more of its adversaries and attempts to goad the United States into joining its war, Michael Maloof a former security policy analyst for the Office of the Secretary of Defense told Sputnik’s Fault Lines on Friday.
“[Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] will try to enlarge this whole thing and it’s gonna be a mess for quite some time. It’s gonna alter the entire Middle East’s complexion,” explained Maloof, adding that if Iran is attacked, it could bring in Russia and Turkiye, creating a world war with a front in Europe and the Middle East.
In March 2023, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich showcased a map during a speech of so-called “Greater Israel” which included not only the West Bank and Gaza as part of Israel, but parts of Jordan as well. The minister also said that the Palestinian people are an invention of the past 100 years. In September 2023, just two weeks before the October 7 attacks, Netanyahu showed a map labeled "The New Middle East" at the UN that did not draw borders for Gaza and the West Bank, subsuming them into Israel.
Greater Israel is a concept advocated by the right wing of Israeli politics that looks to expand Israel’s borders throughout Palestine and in its most extreme versions, includes the whole of Jordan, most of Syria, most of Iraq, and parts of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye.
“I think because [Netanyahu] has become so fanatical listening to his rabid ministers of Smotrich and [National Security Adviser Itamar] Ben-Gvir he… doesn’t have any choice but to remain, but to undertake that because if he just goes against them, he’s out [of office] and subjects himself to exposure for legal action on corruption charges,” explained Maloof. “But secondly, his attention has now turned more northward [away from Gaza and towards Lebanon] as he had promised and his ultimate goal is Iran. We can’t forget that. He made that very clear when he outlined his war plan to Congress and Congress applauded.”
In March, Netanyahu spoke to Congress alleging that Iran is a threat to the world. “Iran’s regime is not merely a Jewish problem, any more than the Nazi regime was merely a Jewish problem. So, too, Iran’s regime poses a grave threat, not only to Israel but also the peace of the entire world.”
Netanyahu received 58 standing ovations from Congress during that speech. “That implied to him that he’s got US support for whatever he does, wherever he goes, which will include Lebanon and ultimately Iran.”
The US is seemingly helpless to prevent this inevitability because of the entrenched forces within and surrounding its government that have a vested interest in keeping the war going. “We have both Israeli lobbyists and defense contractor lobbyists who are gonna insist that we continue to support Israel.”
While Hezbollah focused on military targets since both sides were forced to evacuate areas around their border, Maloof predicts that more Israeli civilians will be hit due to the Israeli pager attack. “Given how widespread the attacks were throughout Lebanon with the pagers, I think we could probably envision attacks increasingly on civilian targets as a consequence. And this is unfortunate, but this is all-out war and I think Netanyahu really brought it on himself.”
Hezbollah has repeatedly said its attacks on Israel would stop once a ceasefire is achieved in Gaza. However, Netanyahu has pledged to return Israelis to the northern border by building a buffer zone to the Litani River in Lebanon. “But that’s not going to be,” explained Maloof. “Hezbollah will not agree to that. And they’re gonna make the north of Israel uninhabitable as a consequence.”
“This thing will enlarge in a crescendo. You will have not only Hamas continuing on that front… Now you have the West Bank that’s being fought [over]. There’s going to be guerrilla warfare there. Then you have Syria and you have Iraq, which will also join in along with Lebanon and Yemen and ultimately Iran,” predicted Maloof. “I see all of them beginning to do more coordinated attacks. Already, the Yemenis are using hypersonics. That’s why that missile couldn’t be intercepted.”
America is unprepared, and likely could never become prepared for such a large war, despite its past and current steadfast support of Israel.
“I think like everything else, we’ll probably ultimately abandon them, because we do that with any agreement. So, I suspect that in time, the American people will grow weary of this thing. I mean, how do you take on an entire region with a huge standoff and commitment?” asked Maloof. “We’ve got a war going on in Ukraine. Now we want to start another war with Taiwan. The neocons have just overextended the US capability. That’s why you’re seeing this reemergence now of a multipolar world order.”
