Pepe Escobar: Putin’s Q&A and the Forever Wars Riddle
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He spoke for four and a half hours, virtually non-stop, reviewing the results of 2024, mastering all the facts.
His Direct Line received over 2 million questions, from Russia and around the world. And he had to crown the performance with a flourish, in an "I did it, my way" vein:
"I believe that not only did I simply save [Russia], we moved away from the edge of the abyss."
The record would confirm it, compared to the appalling state of the Russia he inherited when first elected president in March 2000.
President Putin’s end of the year Q&A contains enough substance to be unpacked for weeks, if not months. Let’s focus here on our current geopolitical crossroads: the Forever Wars in West Asia and Ukraine, two vectors of the standard imperial drive, now united in an Omni-War.
Putin stated that, “we have come to Syria in order to prevent a terrorists’ enclave (…) In general, our goal has been achieved.”
🧵(1/4) CHECK OUT PUTIN'S MOST ESSENTIAL COMMENTS FROM TODAY’S Q&A ON FOLLOWING TOPICS:
— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) December 19, 2024
🪖Russia's military operation
🌐Broader context of Ukraine crisis
⚔️Events in the Middle East: pic.twitter.com/5MRRf2BdR3
Whether Syria remains “terrorist free” remains to be seen: the new, “inclusive”, rebranded as woke Emir of Damascus, al-Jolani, a Saudi national, is a certified Salafi-jihadi still with a $10 million American bounty on his head. The “enclave” now encompasses most of former Syrian sovereign territory, otherwise illegally occupied by jihadi gangs and Zionist lebensraum practitioners.
It’s important to remember that Russia first intervened in Syria in 2015 not so much to keep access to the warm waters of the Eastern Mediterranean: but mostly to protect holy Christian Orthodox sites in Damascus. Christianity was born in Damascus (remember St. Paul) – not in Jerusalem. When Putin went to Damascus, he was on an Orthodox Christian pilgrimage: coming from the Third Rome (Moscow) to pay his respects to the precursor of the first Rome, the cradle of Christianity.
❗️ISRAEL HAS TURNED OUT TO BE THE MAIN BENEFICIARY OF THE EVENTS UNFOLDING IN SYRIA, WHERE THE GOVERNMENT HAS CHANGED, PUTIN SAID.
— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) December 19, 2024
Putin said that he is unaware of Israel’s ultimate goals in the Gaza Strip, but castigated its actions as “simply reprehensible" pic.twitter.com/xqUuy53NbH
It all started with Timber Sycamore
On the larger Levantine geopolitical picture, Putin is correct. The CIA invented Operation Timber Sycamore way back in 2012 to train and weaponize “moderate rebels” to overthrow Assad – spending over $1 billion a year: the most extensive CIA covert op since the jihad in Afghanistan in the 1980s.
The UK, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan were Sycamore partners. Over the final years, the Pentagon jumped in to “prepare” Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the “soft” ISIS splinter group.
Ultimately it was nearly 14 years of toxic US sanctions and relentless siege warfare that led to the final act, complete with Ukrainian drone instructors, mountains of Qatari cash and the Turk-assembled crypto-al Qaeda infantry (no more than 350 fighters, according to Putin himself).
Now it’s a matter of adapting. Putin said that, “we have established relations with all those that control the situation on the ground (…) Most countries expect the Russian bases to remain (…) Our interests should coincide, a question that requires painstaking examination.”
He also reminded everyone that politics is the art of compromise – and Russia’s strategic priority is to keep the bases in Tartus and Hmeimim.
Putin brushed aside the notion that Russia has been weakened by Assad’s downfall in Syria, quoting Mark Twain: “Rumors about my death have been greatly exaggerated.”
Instead, he practically proposed that the Russian bases could provide humanitarian aid: one can imagine the population of a deeply polarized, fragmented Syria arguing with the Salafi-jihadis to get their share. Were that to happen, Russia would be in direct aid competition with the collective West.
The EU, via its new, deranged Estonian ultra-Russophobic foreign policy chief, has already ordered that there will be no sanctions relief if the Russian bases stay.
Erdogan thinking like it’s 1919
Turkiye is the ultimate thorny issue. Erdogan is relentlessly promoting the notion that “Turkiye is greater than Turkiye itself” – which some have interpreted as Ankara being ready to annex large swathes of Syria.
And potentially more. A “Greater Turkiye” would historically have included Thessaloniki, Cyprus, Aleppo and even Mosul.
Putin for his part was supremely diplomatic, focusing on Turkiye “trying to safeguard its safety on its southern frontiers, and to create conditions for the return of refugees back home from its territory to Syrian land. And those territories are now under more or less control of actually Turkiye.”
He also acknowledged that Turkiye has had “problems with the Kurdish Workers Party for decades. I hope there will not be an aggravation”.
Well, there will (italics mine) be aggravation.
Turkish diplomatic sources are relentlessly spinning that everything that happened in Syria was decided by the “Astana process” troika of Russia, Iran and Turkiye. Moscow keeping its embassy in Damascus and – for the moment – the bases in Tartus and Hmeimim might point to a deal.
Add to it Erdogan gleefully stating on the record that
Putin and himself are the most experienced politicians on the planet.
As it stands, all that may be classified as fog of war.
Immediately after Assad’s fall, the Israelis started bombing every warehouse holding heavy military equipment across Syria, including classified weapons. It’s unclear who provided the exact locations.
The Americans, predictably, were furious. No wonder: the lame duck White House and the Deep State were betting on transferring all that weaponry to Kiev.
The exact tone of the secret deals struck between the Astana process troika and between two of them with Israel will remain predictably murky – and the way Putin talked about them suggests that the Long Game is just starting.
Russia may not have been weakened by the loss of Syria, but quite uncomfortable questions remain. The sacredness of Syria’s national sovereignty has taken a hit. Same goes for the fight against terrorism.
On the other hand, Putin increased the tone on Tel Aviv – an extremely touchy dossier in Russia. He named Israel as “the main beneficiary” in Syria; directly condemned Israeli invasion and annexation of sovereign Syrian territory; and confessed he does not know what “ultimate goals” Israel is pursuing in Gaza, but "this is only worthy of condemnation".
'Let’s have a 21st century tech duel'
Putin all but admitted that Russia should have moved against Kiev earlier – and that the Russian Army was not fully prepared for the start of the SMO in February 2022. What’s implied is that over 10 years ago, a simple Russian police operation might have taken care of Maidan; Yanukovych could have been transported to Crimea; the coup would have fizzled; and there would have been no war.
❗️ PUTIN ISSUES CHALLENGE TO ORESHNIK'S SKEPTICS IN THE WEST:
— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) December 19, 2024
"Pick any target in Kiev and deploy all your air defense systems there. Let's see what happens." pic.twitter.com/k2GRH8rCTN
Putin is adamant that Russia is always ready to negotiate with Kiev. The key takeaways: no preconditions; talks grounded in the 2022 Istanbul deal (aborted by the Americans) and the “current conditions on the battlefield”; Russia will talk to Zelensky only if he holds elections and gains legitimacy; and Russia will only sign peace deals with the legitimate leader of Ukraine.
A lot to unpack here. In sum: Istanbul for all practical purposes does not apply anymore - considering the ever-changing "conditions on the battlefield." Zelensky will not hold elections - so he will remain illegitimate. So who to talk to? Moreover, signing peace deals with a "legitimate" Ukrainian leader means nothing because the Ultimate Decider is always the “non-agreement capable” (copyright Lavrov) Hegemon.
All that implies that the SMO may keep rumblin' on for quite a while.
The whole Forever Wars riddle directly links with BRICS, because this is a Hegemon war against BRICS (especially top three “existential threats” Russia, China and Iran), inscribed in the Big Picture of the Eurasia v. NATOstan war.
Putin was adamant that “BRICS is not a tool for countering the West. Out work is not aimed against anyone (…) We adopt all decisions by consensus (…) this is a group based on common interests. And there is one common interest: development.”
BRICS, added Putin, is driven to generate “more economic growth and transforming the structure of the economy in order for it to be in step with the global development agenda”, positioning BRICS “at the forefront of this progressive movement”. Expect the usual lot accusing Putin of being a Davos/Great Reset shill.
Arguably the prime cliffhanger of the Q&A was Putin proposing to test the hypersonic Oreshnik against NATO’s Aegis Ashore: “Let’s have a 21st century tech duel”. NATOstan brings all their top defense systems to Kiev and let’s see if they can stop Oreshnik. Could be London instead of Kiev. Or for that matter, NATO’s HQ outside Brussels.
Will that happen? Of course not. Already utterly humiliated in the black soil of Novorossiya, collective West cowards will flee from being totally humiliated all over again in front of the whole planet.
