https://sputnikglobe.com/20260518/suspicious-iran-war-bets-raise-insider-trading-concerns--reports-1124139107.html
Suspicious Iran War Bets Raise Insider Trading Concerns — Reports
Suspicious Iran War Bets Raise Insider Trading Concerns — Reports
Sputnik International
Federal investigators are probing suspicious oil market trades made shortly before a US announcement on talks with Iran, American media reported.
2026-05-18T04:13+0000
2026-05-18T04:13+0000
2026-05-18T04:31+0000
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More than $800 million was staked on oil prices dropping at 6:50 a.m. on March 23. Fifteen minutes later, an announcement about “very good and productive” talks with Iran sent oil prices down by more than 10%.The report also points to prediction markets, where nine connected Polymarket accounts allegedly made more than $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on US military actions in the Iran war, with a 98% win rate across more than 80 bets.The case highlights a growing problem in US war machine: when military decisions, ceasefire announcements and market-moving policy shifts become betting opportunities, insiders may profit while ordinary citizens pay the price through fuel costs and economic uncertainty.
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war, corruption, donald trump, insider trading, iran, stock market
war, corruption, donald trump, insider trading, iran, stock market
Suspicious Iran War Bets Raise Insider Trading Concerns — Reports
04:13 GMT 18.05.2026 (Updated: 04:31 GMT 18.05.2026) Federal investigators are probing suspicious oil market trades made shortly before a US announcement on talks with Iran, American media reported.
More than $800 million was staked on oil prices dropping at 6:50 a.m. on March 23. Fifteen minutes later, an announcement about “very good and productive” talks with Iran sent oil prices down by more than 10%.
“We’re talking tens of millions, could be $80 million,” Former commodities trader David Kovel said.
The report also points to prediction markets, where nine connected Polymarket accounts allegedly made more than $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on US military actions in the Iran war, with a 98% win rate across more than 80 bets.
“Luck alone cannot explain those numbers,” Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman said.
The case highlights a growing problem in US war machine: when military decisions, ceasefire announcements and market-moving policy shifts become betting opportunities, insiders may profit while ordinary citizens pay the price through fuel costs and economic uncertainty.
