Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen met with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on April 5 as part of her "transit" through the United States.
During her visit to New York City late last month, Tsai held a meeting with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. In early August 2022, the Taiwanese leader met with then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Beijing, which sees Taiwan as an inalienable part of China, has repeatedly warned Washington against treating the island as a "state" thus violating the One-China principle. China denounced the Tsai-McCarthy meeting as a "provocation" and threatened "countermeasures."
"The Chinese reaction is predictable and restrained," said Dr. Victor Teo. "For the Taiwanese, the Tsai-McCarthy meeting is a purely partisan exercise on the part of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to prepare for the upcoming elections in Taiwan as well as to cement Tsai’s legacy in Taiwanese politics. From initial appearances, it’s likely that the US State Department is tightly controlling the optics [sic] and the messages that are being conveyed by the meeting. For the DPP camp in Taiwan, it is sold as a 'victory' of sorts for Tsai and the DPP supporters, but in reality, it exposes the limitations of Taiwan diplomacy in international politics as well as its role as a bargaining chip between the United States and China."
Taiwan's next presidential election is scheduled to be held in January 2024. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) is seeking to reclaim its status as the “mainstream” party. The KMT did well during the November 2022 “9-in-1” elections and won 13 of the top political posts of local governments across 22 cities, counties, and municipalities, while the DPP won just five.
"From the DPP’s point of view, it is unlikely that Tsai and her advisors would see [her meeting with McCarthy] as a mistake," said Dr. Teo. "It is important to note that the concurrent visit of former President Ma Ying-jeou to China has taken some shine away from Tsai’s visit, effectively reassuring Beijing that there are Taiwanese who still consider themselves as Chinese. Ma’s trip is also a subtle reminder that the KMT stands behind the One-China policy and that the KMT will be the best party to bring about dialogue and peace with China. In some ways, this visit by President Ma ironically does also help reduce tensions caused by Tsai’s visit. From the Biden administration’s perspective, it’s just another usual work day playing the Taiwan card and fending off Republican attacks."
It doesn't seem that the Biden administration wants Tsai's visit to translate into a growing standoff with China, according to the scholar. He has drawn attention to the fact that the Biden administration is seeking to resume dialogue with the Chinese leadership after it canceled Antony Blinken's visit to the People's Republic over the "spy" balloon scandal. According to Western press, Beijing is currently giving US top officials the cold shoulder by avoiding high-level engagement.
"The Biden administration, despite its rhetoric, has been keen to reach out to China’s leaders to initiate a dialogue in recent weeks," Dr. Teo noted. "Orchestrating this move helps three goals: to help the American ally Tsai and her party, the DPP in Taiwan politics; to use the trip as a bargaining chip in ongoing Sino-US maneuvers and prevent the Republicans (i.e. the US speaker and his Republican friends) from gaining high profile international exposure and scoring political points while doing damage to the current administration plans. So in a nutshell, I think at this point, the US doesn’t want the visit to turn into another episode of military confrontation that would further derail tensions in Sino-US relations."