Ukraine stands to lose roughly $500 million per month if the grain deal with Russia is not extended Monday, an analysis by Russian media using data from the UN and Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture and Customs Service has shown.
According to the figures, between August 2022 and June 2023, Ukraine exported some 50.6 million tons of grain worth a total of $9.8 billion, with some 78-80 percent of exports accounted for by the country’s ports, and the remainder via rail, road and barge-based shipments.
Exports enabled by the Black Sea Grain Initiative accounted for 28.1 million tons of grain, or 55.5 percent of all Ukrainian sales abroad.
In total, exports via ports accounted for some $7.7 billion in earnings, $5.5 billion of that via the Black Sea, and $2.2 billion via rivers, mainly through the Danube River ports of Ismail, Ust-Dunaysk and Reni along Ukraine’s southern tip bordering on Romania.
In other words, if the grain deal is not renewed, Ukraine would stand to lose upwards of $500 million a month.
Russia and Ukraine signed the Black Sea Grain Initiative last July after talks mediated by the United Nations and Turkiye. The agreement, which provided for a safe maritime corridor for vessels carrying foodstuffs from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports through sea areas controlled by Russia, also promised Moscow the easing of sanctions pressure by the West on Russia’s own food and fertilizer exports.
Additionally, Moscow was told that if Ukraine wasn’t allowed to export its substantive agricultural commodities abroad, this could result in mass starvation among import-dependent countries in the Global South.
At the same time, as Russian President Vladimir Putin noted on Thursday, literally “nothing” had been done to allay Russia’s concerns about the restrictions which remain in place hampering logistics, insurance and the transfer of funds for payment for Russian agricultural exports. “It’s been a one-sided relationship,” Putin said of the agreement.
Putin left the door open for Russia’s return to the agreement, but only if Moscow’s negotiating partners replaced empty promises with concrete commitments.
In telephone talks with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, the Russian leader reiterated that “the main goal of the deal, namely the supply of grain to countries in need, including on the African continent, has not been implemented.”
The Office of the UN Coordinator for the Black Sea Grain Initiative confirmed this week that no vessels carrying Russian fertilizers, including ammonia fertilizers, from the Ukrainian port of Yuzhny left the port since the grain deal was signed last year.
To the contrary, Ukrainian saboteurs blew up a section of the massive Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline last month, putting an end to negotiations on the pipeline’s reopening to ship Russian ammonia through Ukraine to global markets via the Black Sea.