Analysis

Biden's Effort to Get Extra $24 Billion for Ukraine Will Sway 'Only Hardcore Politicos'

Two experts told Sputnik that the White House is going to have a tough uphill fight getting more military aid to Ukraine, between American concerns about bread-and-butter issues and spreading awareness that Ukraine’s vaunted counteroffensive, which was supposed to reverse Kiev's fortunes, has been a catastrophe.
Sputnik
US President Joe Biden has asked Congress to authorize more than $24 billion more in aid for Ukraine, $13 billion of which is for weapons and military-related items. However, this is the first time he has done so since Republicans took control of the US House of Representatives in January, many of whom have pledged to oppose blank checks for Kiev, including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).
McCarthy said in June he would not allow a vote in the lower chamber on additional Ukraine funding - a position in line with the majority of the US body politic, according to a recent poll by CNN. The survey found that 55% of Americans oppose more funding for Ukraine while 45% support it, and 51% thought Washington had already done enough to help Kiev. When the conflict first began in February 2022, some 62% of Americans believed the US should be doing more for Kiev.
Financial and geopolitical analyst Tom Luongo told Sputnik on Friday that despite the GOP leader's vocal opposition, much of the rank-and-file lawmakers in both parties still support more Ukraine funding.

"No one should trust McCarthy on this because the majority of both Houses of Congress want more funding for Ukraine,” he said. “The fiscal conservatives in the House will likely have to horse-trade with him if they want to go to the mat this fall with Biden over budget reforms McCarthy promised during the debt ceiling negotiations."

Regarding the recent CNN poll, Luongo observed that it reflected a difference of priorities between the US administration and the US population, who are less and less swayed by Biden’s insistence that saving Ukraine should be at the top of every Americans’ agenda.
"Americans care about inflation and their jobs," he said. "and if Biden keeps spending money overseas it will only drive more people into the arms of outsider candidates like Trump and RFK Jr."
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"By next year, however? What are the real political consequences of this, nothing. By then the DNC will be dealing with a brutal recession that they will try to blame on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates."

"Only hardcore politicos will be swayed by this argument. They are setting themselves up for a massive backlash in 2024. Recession, war, unemployment, $6/gallon gas. No sitting president will live through that. No war for Ukraine of all places will offset that," he predicted.

David T. Pyne, an EMP Task Force scholar and former US Department of Defense officer, told Sputnik that Biden’s aid package would “likely encounter significant opposition” in the House.
"In addition, Russia has demonstrated an ability to jam GPS-guided munitions such as HIMARS to prevent them from reaching their intended targets, so it seems futile for the US to continue to provide additional precision guided munitions to Ukraine," he said.

"In my opinion, there is no amount of military assistance that the US and its NATO allies can provide Ukraine which will enable them to retake a significant part of their lost territories, let alone defeat Russia," Pyne said.

"Even the British press is now beginning to admit that Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been a total failure, unable to penetrate Russia’s heavily fortified defensive lines in Zaporozhye and that the Ukrainian army is now in total chaos, with [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky’s firing of top regional recruiting commanders over the latest corruption scandal. It is long past time for the Biden administration to publicly admit that the only way to end the war in Ukraine is to immediately suspend all assistance to Ukraine and negotiate a cease-fire and armistice agreement with Russia along the current lines of control as I proposed last year," Pyne said.
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When it came to the composition of the aid package, Pyne noted it was still "unclear" what it was intended to include.

"I would anticipate that it would include more 105-millimeter and 155-millimeter artillery; Javelin ATGMs [anti-tank guided missiles]; rockets and missiles; artillery shells; and other munitions; given that Ukraine has expended a large amount of munitions and suffered heavy losses during its disastrous summer counteroffensive. The package could also include additional Bradley Infantry Combat Vehicles and HIMARS" rocket artillery, he noted.

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