"Among G20 countries, only Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico and the Russian Federation are expected to see a growth improvement," the UN agency said in its Trade and Development Report for 2023.
Russian exports of natural gas reportedly fell by 32% in 2022 amid decreasing demand from Europe, the report read, adding that the country's oil revenues also dropped by 47%, to which Moscow responded by cutting production. Despite that and the falling ruble's exchange rate, the Russian government managed to make up for the lack of demand, mainly thanks to comparatively low sovereign debt, which stays at 23% of the GDP.
"Based on all these factors, GDP growth is projected to be 2.2 and 2 per cent in 2023 and 2024, respectively," the UNCTAD report read.
In September, the Russian Economic Development Ministry increased forecast for the country's GDP growth in 2023 from 1.2% to 2.8%. In 2024-2025, the GDP is expected to grow by 2.3%, slowing to 2.2% in 2026. The country's central bank estimates overall growth of the Russian economy from 1.5% to 2.5% in 2023 and from 0.5% to 1.5% for 2024.
In the same month, the World Trade Organization issued a report on global trade for 2023 in which it said that economic sanctions against Russia are likely to have a negative impact on the majority of the world's economies, while the following fragmentation of global economic systems is expected to damage the struggle against global warming.
Russia's total volume of gas and oil exports to date has not changed much despite the Western sanctions imposed on the country since the beginning of its military operation in Ukraine in February 2022, but export revenues have fallen 47% in the first half of 2023 due to a global decline in prices, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development report published on Wednesday.
"The overall volume of oil and gas exports, the country's main source of foreign currency, has not changed dramatically: exports of natural gas reportedly fell by 32 per cent in 2022, mainly as a result of shifting demand from Europe, which imported less piped gas and more liquified gas via tankers. However, oil exports, amounting to the majority of energy exports (75 per cent), remained mostly stable at 3 million barrels per day," the Trade and Development Report 2023 read.
The organization said that despite minor volume changes, oil and gas exports revenues have shrunk by almost a half — 47%, in the first half of 2023 due to the world prices decline — "a trend that the Russian Federation responded to by cutting production. Whether this will yield the desired result remains to be seen."
It is added that Western sanctions on Russian oil exports have generally led to redirection of these trade flows to China and India at a reduced price, which means that the impact of the sanctions on world oil exports was minimal, having a downward impact on world oil prices, the report read.
12 September 2023, 19:50 GMT
Western countries' oil sanctions against Russia came into force on December 5 — the European Union prohibited the import of seaborne oil from Russia, and the G7 countries, Australia and the EU imposed a price cap on its sea transportation at $60 per barrel. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin, banned from February 1 the supply of oil to foreign parties if the contracts directly or indirectly require the use of a price cap regulations.