Analysis

McCarthy's Ouster Signals US 'Preparing Populace at Large' to Defund Ukraine

Kevin McCarthy lost the House speakership this week after his GOP colleague Matt Gaetz tabled a motion to remove him over alleged "side deal" talks with President Biden and the Democrats on Ukraine funding. The shock ouster comes amid growing weariness among Americans over the proxy war, and possible preparations to dump Kiev, experts told Sputnik.
Sputnik
The fallout over Kevin McCarthy's historically unprecedented removal as speaker of the House of Representatives continues to send shockwaves of confusion and dread across the furthest reaches of the American empire, including in Ukraine.

"We are freaking out. For us it is a disaster," Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, a senior Ukrainian lawmaker responsible for lobbying Kiev's efforts to join the European Union, told US media, commenting on the threat of Washington cutting off its military and financial support.

"We are interested in getting things sorted out so American democracy can function, and so we can restore the bipartisan consensus on supporting their own national interest by supporting Ukraine," Klympush-Tsintsadze emphasized. Apparently, to the politician, a "functioning" American democracy seems to mean continuing to pump tens of billions of additional dollars into Kiev, which faces a looming debt crisis, and is now dependent on Washington and its allies for some 70 percent of all government expenses, as Western creditors prepare to collect dividends on their "investments."
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“There is nothing good, but, objectively, we have simply become hostages of their internal politics,” Ukrainian parliament finance committee deputy chairman Yaroslav Zheleznyak complained, referring to last week’s budget deal showdown – in which Republicans threatened to force a shutdown if the budget included billions in additional funding for Kiev.
The Zelensky government estimates that Kiev still has access to about $1.6 billion in US defense support and $1.23 billion in budgetary assistance. The Pentagon says some $5.4 billion in cash also remain in Presidential Drawdown Authority funds –allowing for weapons stocks from American armories to be sent to Kiev. However, senior Biden administration officials, including the president himself, have expressed fears that "only weeks remain" before a lack of additional funding will start becoming "a serious battlefield concern" for Kiev.

"It does worry me,' Joe Biden told reporters Wednesday, when asked about the possibility of funds drying up. "But I know there are a majority of members of the House and Senate in both parties who have said that they would support funding Ukraine," he added. "I’m going to make the argument that it’s overwhelmingly in the interest of the United States of America that Ukraine succeeds."

"Obviously, time is of the essence," an administration official stressed, warning of the risks of Congress sitting on its hands without appropriating additional cash to Kiev before the current short-term spending package runs out in mid-November.

Preparing the Public for Bad News?

"I have difficulty thinking of Ukraine as a primary issue for American politicians," Dr. Nicolai Petro, an international politics professor at the University of Rhode Island, told Sputnik, commenting on the role played by Ukraine funding in the chaos in Washington over the past week.
"I think it is more of a symbolic issue and that their primary interest is not voting up or down on Ukraine aid," but "what that symbolizes and how it can play out in the American political process."
Pointing to the deeply murky nature of US spending on Ukraine and the "hide the ball" approach to appropriations, Petro predicted that the Biden administration will likely be able to squeeze out more cash from already appropriated funding for some time even if additional Congressional funding dries up.
The growing debate in Washington over Ukraine has also rippled across the Atlantic to Britain – the second-staunchest supporter within NATO of continuing the proxy war. Even there, Petro pointed out, a debate seems to be gaining strength over just how much more money can be lifted from taxpayers’ pockets and transferred to Kiev.

"London and Washington seem to be on the same wavelength here. We're both at the same time ramping up production and are not sure how much we have and how much is even needed. Last month, for example, the new UK defense minister said London would deliver tens of thousands of new artillery shells. Three weeks later, it's 'we've given away as much as we can afford'. This sort of flip-flop is very convenient when you’re preparing the populace at large for a transition of policy from 'we'll do whatever it takes as long as it takes' to ‘no we really need to be thinking about the cost.’ That's a very different argument to make," the academic emphasized.

This shift in rhetoric is related to the fact that the US and some of its allies are approaching crucial elections, with "all the polls and the recent elections [in Europe] suggest[ing] that this NATO proxy war in Ukraine is extremely unpopular. And that in and of itself it is going to at least affect the narrative between now and several key elections," Petro said.
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Dems Shoot Themselves in the Foot

McCarthy was ousted Tuesday by an extremely narrow margin of 216 in favor to 210 opposed, with only eight Republicans – led by rebel Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz, supporting his removal alongside Democrats.
"My biggest question going forward is, is this going to be the right move for Democrats?" independent US journalist Rachel Blevins told Sputnik.

"Because they may have just shot themselves in the foot a little bit by getting rid of someone like Kevin McCarthy, who was trying to work with them, you know, maybe promising a separate vote to ensure funding for Ukraine and all that. Well now it could end up being that the next Republican speaker does not want to work with them whatsoever," the observer pointed out.

The ouster could have repercussions for Ukraine going forward. While interim House Speaker Patrick McHenry has repeatedly supported Congressional votes on Ukraine funding – apart from last week’s attempt to role assistance into the government funding bill, several candidates vying for the speakership have expressed opposition to further aid, including Ohio Congressman Jim Jordan, Oklahoma Representative Kevin Hern, and Florida Congressman Byron Donalds.
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What a Difference a Year Makes

"I know that Joe Biden is not happy right now," Blevins emphasized. "He’s probably the most furious with all of this, because he was expecting McCarthy to get that funding through. He was not happy that it was not there in that bill to keep the government open."
"What was interesting was to see that back and forth" over Ukraine, the observer added. "Because in the Senate, they had at least $6 billion for Ukraine, which is a lot of money to the average person, obviously. But when it comes to Ukraine, that’s just enough to keep it rolling for a few months. So they come up with $6 billion. Then in the House, they basically put Democrats in a position where they said, ok, here’s a funding bill to keep the government open. If you say you’re against it, it’s literally just over Ukraine funding. So that's on you. And you have to answer to your constituents and saying that you wanted a government shutdown just so that you could fund a country that most Americans can’t find on a map," the observer said.

"Also notable is the latest polls show that half of the American public doesn’t think Congress should keep continuing to approve funding for Ukraine. And sow whenever those members of Congress go in there, they’re going to have to find a better justification for it than now, because it’s something that at least half of Americans don’t say is a priority. And that’s certainly not where Congress was even just one year ago when they were passing unprecedented funding and there was no fight about it whatsoever," Blevins summed up.

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