Informed sources told US business media this week that the German government is going to send an additional IRIS-T medium-range air defense system more than a dozen Gepard anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine. The air defense weapons – which are expected to arrive in the country before the end of the year, are purportedly meant to protect grain shipments to Europe up the Danube River and via other so-called "Solidarity Lanes" to get Ukrainian foodstuffs out of the country to international markets.
Germany, the second-largest donor of advanced weaponry to Ukraine within NATO after the United States, has already sent over €17.1 billion ($17.96 billion US) in arms assistance to Kiev, including at least six IRIS-T medium-range missile launchers. Berlin has also sent nearly 50 Flakpanzer Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns – with the vintage 1970s flak guns upgraded and fitted with modern electronics. Up to 30 more Gepards are expected to be delivered "in cooperation with the United States."
The air defense weapons, taken directly from the Bundeswehr's own stocks, have complicated Germany's €100 billion push to build up its armed forces and to create several new divisions. Kiev, for its part, has been calling on NATO to send more "outdated but still effective Soviet" air defense missiles its way alongside Western systems like the IRIS-T and the Patriot.
Grain Deal Stagmire
Kiev and its allies wouldn't need their "Solidarity Lanes" in the first place if the West implemented Russia’s demands for the Black Sea Grain Deal, which allowed Ukraine to export tens of millions of tons of foodstuffs via the Black Sea in an agreement facilitated by Turkiye and the United Nations. Russia walked out on the Grain Deal in July, citing the failure by the West to facilitate the export of Russian grain and fertilizers, and the fact that the vast majority of the exported Ukrainian grain was sent to rich countries in Europe and Turkiye, instead of going to the world’s poorest nations to prevent starvation, as originally intended. After pulling out, Moscow announced plans to provide tens of thousands of tons of grain to six African nations free of charge.
Alternatives for Germany
The delivery of German air defense systems to Kiev won’t affect Moscow’s stance, and the Russian military will do its best to make short work of any additional NATO weapons sent to Ukraine, independent Russian military expert and Air Defense Forces reserve officer Vladislav Shurigin told Sputnik.
“We took part in the Grain Deal when it was a matter of international – not even obligations, but international responsibility, which we were asked to share on behalf of the UN. The Grain Deal was concluded not on behalf of Germany, the United States or Ukraine, but under the guarantee of the UN, which proved completely incapable of fulfilling its promises,” Shurigin said.
Shurigin considers the IRIS-T to be one of the last formidable medium-range air defense system at Ukraine’s disposal, and says the German-made platform is “modern” and “quite effective,” making it a priority for Russia to “identify and destroy them.”
“If we can identify them while they are being transported to Ukraine or through Ukraine, we can try to destroy them there. If we identify them from some position [after they’ve been set up, ed.] “combined air strikes can be organized using both missiles and drones…These are among the targets marked top priority, and when they are identified, the reaction is immediate; everything is thrown in to destroy them,” Shurigin stressed.
Asked to comment on what specific systems Russia could use to target NATO weapons like the IRIS-T, veteran Russian military expert Alexei Leonkov, editor of the Russian military affairs magazine Arsenal of the Fatherland, told Sputnik that these may include Iskander tactical missiles and Kinzhal hypersonic air-launched strike systems, “that is, weapons which the IRIS-T can’t intercept.”
“There are air-to-surface missiles in service with our Aerospace Forces. The main thing for us is to identify where the [enemy systems] are and where its components are located, that is, the launchers and radar system,” Leonkov said.
As far as the Gepards are concerned, Leonkov says their delivery seems designed to plug gaps in Ukraine’s air defenses caused by Russia’s drones. “How many will Germany deliver? I think probably as many as they can repair…Ukraine once had carte blanche – getting basically as much as they wanted. Now every country in Europe, including Germany, supplies only as many weapons as they can, based on their own capabilities and needs.”
Berlin, Leonkov noted, has been trying to improve the situation for itself, Kiev and its allies after the collapse of the Grain Deal, notwithstanding potential ‘landmines’ in the ‘Solidarity Lanes’ project as Poland, Slovakia and Eastern European countries increasingly reject Ukrainian foodstuffs in bid to protect their farmers’ interests.
“To bypass this blockage on the part of Poland, on the part of Slovakia, it’s been stated that the grain will be shipped as transit – that is, the railway cars will not be unloaded in Poland, but on German territory, or at ports from which dry cargo ships carrying the grain will exit,” the observer said.
Could Ukraine Deploy German Air Defense Systems in Other Theaters?
There is no guarantee that Kiev will not try to stand up its additional German air defense weaponry in other theaters, Shurigin said, because Kiev "never" really "keeps any promises, does not take into account any of its own guarantees, and uses every tool at its disposal exclusively for purposes it considers necessary and correct for itself. This same rule applies as far as not using [Western long-range] missiles to attack Russian territory," the observer noted, referring to the fact that such commitments have been made and broken repeatedly over the past year-and-a-half.
For his part, Leonkov believes any talk of limiting the placement of German weaponry is needed only by the German side, since Berlin recognizes that within the country, "there is a growing dissatisfaction among ordinary citizens about providing military assistance to Ukraine."
"So they've apparently decided to play a game," characterizing the arms deliveries as a defensive move to prevent Russia from striking grain storage facilities. "The public will not check this information, or perhaps won't understand it," with the move ultimately designed purely "to deceive the public," Leonkov concluded.