The Israeli Iron Dome, a short-range aerial defense system, was overwhelmed by Hamas strikes on October 7, revealing its vulnerability. Following the strike, Tel Aviv asked Washington to assist it militarily, which includes the provision of Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs), interceptor missiles for Israel's air defenses, intelligence support and, potentially, "more capabilities and weapons" depending on how Tel Aviv's operation against Hamas evolves, according to the US press.
Meanwhile, American lawmakers are also due to consider Joe Biden's $100 billion "one-and-done" bill for Ukraine. One might wonder how GOP and Democratic lawmakers can decide on Israel and Ukraine's packages, and whether one of them will be put on the back burner.
"I think it will be initially simply moral, weapons systems already in the pipeline to Israel expedited, as well as financial aid, and of course surveillance and intelligence assistance, including regional targeting assistance, if Israel needs it," retired Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski, a former analyst for the US Department of Defense, told Sputnik.
"The US intelligence community itself apparently was also caught off guard here, if indeed this was a total surprise, and US intelligence assets are currently reviewing how it was that they also missed the warning signs of this impending attack in prior weeks and months."
Difference of Attitudes to Israeli and Ukraine Aid
Israel has been the US' major non-NATO ally since 1987. Since the 1960s, Washington has been an ardent supporter of Tel Aviv both in the UN – vetoing anti-Israel resolutions – and on the global political stage. All in all, Washington has provided Israel with $233 billion in aid (when adjusted for inflation) since the formation of the Israeli state. Therefore, it appears that US lawmakers are likely to give Israel top priority when considering military and financial assistance.
"The situation in the US House, where the purse strings of the US government are controlled, tells us that in the short term, it will be up to the executive branch to reallocate resources (cash and military aid) as the Middle East situation boils over," Kwiatkowski suggested.
While previously showing reluctance to provide a multi-billion package to Ukraine, House Republicans are now willing to urgently support Israel. Some of them have expressed frustration over the procedural delays with the Israeli aid casued by the ousting of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. To that end, they are ready to vote for a new speaker as soon as possible.
Two major contenders for the speaker gavel – House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) – are currently short of the 218 votes needed. Some moderate GOP lawmakers have even suggested bringing back Kevin McCarthy in order to accelerate the provision of assistance to Tel Aviv.
To What Extent Will the US be Involved in the Israel-Hamas War?
The Pentagon has already sent the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. However, Kwiatkowski believes that the US is not interested in getting bogged down in the Middle East and in further escalation in the region.
"The US is already broke and filled with internal economic and political division, facing an election year that promises to be very strange, and helping Ukraine and Israel at the same time will reveal logical cracks and deficiencies in US foreign policy," according to Kwiatkowski.
Despite claims by some Republican leaders that Iran was behind the Hamas attack, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the US press on Sunday that "we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack." Still, he added that Washington is examining whether Tehran was involved: "That’s something we’re looking at very carefully, and we’ve got to see where the facts lead. But we do know that Iran’s had a long relationship with Hamas, long support."
How Will Israel's Operation Unfold?
"Israel's military is capable of destroying all life in Gaza, but Israel faces its own internal concerns and politics – and some of this will result in some kind of restraint," the former Pentagon analyst believes. "If the Israeli response begins to look like an effort to exterminate and eliminate the population of Gaza, this will not serve Israel's longer-term interests."
Over the past several years the Israeli government has sought to normalize with Arab states and made serious progress on that path during Donald Trump's presidency: at that time Tel Aviv signed the "Abraham Accords" with several Muslim countries. However, if Israel's response to Hamas and Palestinian Arabs is considered to be too harsh, Muslim states may turn their back on Tel Aviv, international observers assume.
US Weaponization of Eurasia Has Borne Bitter Fruits
As the US is fixing to provide some weapons to Israel, American political commentators and observers are wondering where Hamas got its arms for the surprise attack.
On X (formerly Twitter), Donald Trump Jr. posted a picture of a Hamas fighter holding a US-made M4 rifle. There have also been reports of Hamas fighters using Soviet-made SAM IGLA portable air defense systems.
"We have known that many weapons, particularly older and more portable weapons have made their way into the global market from Ukraine, as have many weapons left over in Iraq and Afghanistan," said Kwiatkowski. "The corridor for non-state and state weapons trade is geographically simple and evident, so I don't think anyone is surprised at this. It does put Ukraine in particular, and the US in a position of having to either ignore the facts, lie about them, or possibly, be forced to admit culpability for a kind of blowback from our previous and ongoing wars in the Middle East and in Ukraine."