Exit polls that emerged in Polish media shortly after the conclusion of the October 15 election suggest that PiS secured 36.8% of the vote, with the opposition Civic Coalition (KO) appearing as the first runner-up with 31.6% of the vote. These, however, were just exit polls’ results and not the final tally.
Commenting on this development, Polish analyst Jakub Korejba argued that, while the vote counting is yet to be completed, it seems that there would not be any major changes to the existing political landscape in Poland where two major parties – “a conservative and a liberal civic platform” – serve as the core of the Polish political system.
“It is already clear, however, that there will be no single party majority, that there will be a coalition. Secondly, there will be a strong opposition. No matter who assumes power, the opposition will be strong, which shows the growing maturity of Polish society and the continuing advancement of the Polish political system,” he maintained.
Polish political observer and columnist Mateusz Piskorski offered a slightly different take on the subject, suggesting that the opposition Third Way (TD) political alliance, formed to provide an alternative to both PiS and KO, became “one of the winners” of this election and may play a significant role in the formation of the future Polish government.
He did note that PiS may now attempt to sway a few dozens of MPs from other parties through both “formal and unofficial means” in order to have them jump ship and allow PiS to form the government.
Meanwhile, Korejba speculated that the agrarian Polish People’s Party (PSL), which is currently a part of the TD, may end up abandoning its Third Way alliance and form a coalition with PiS, because PSL allegedly “has no ideological limitations” and is “willing to form coalitions with any and all parties.”
Regarding the effect the election results might have on the relations between Warsaw and the regime in Kiev, Korejba claimed that these will remain unchanged, stating that “the issue of a strategic alliance with Ukraine is a matter of consensus between all Polish political parties.”
Piskorski, however, argued that Poland cannot be considered an “independent actor” in this matter, and that “all decisions regarding future cooperation with Kiev” will only be made with the approval of “Western partners, primarily Washington and London.”
He added that, if the current Polish opposition does form the government, there may be attempts to somehow coordinate with the EU and Germany Warsaw's foreign policy towards Ukraine.
“The chief factor here is who is going to be the senior partner of the Polish government. Because it is the foreign senior partners who will determine the policy towards Kiev,” Piskorski clarified.