"In a 'large disruption' scenario—comparable to the Arab oil embargo in 1973— the global oil supply would shrink by 6 million to 8 million barrels per day. That would drive prices up by 56% to 75% initially—to between $140 and $157 a barrel," the World Bank stated in its Commodity Markets Outlook.
A "small disruption" scenario could increase global oil prices to between $93 and $102 per barrel, while a "medium disruption" scenario could spike them to between $109 and $121.
The World Bank warned that though the global economy is in a better position now than it was in the 1970s, the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine could push global commodity markets into uncharted waters.
The World Bank also said that higher oil prices would negatively affect food prices.