First and foremost, it’s worth stressing that Israel neither confirms nor denies its nuclear weapons status, sticking to a so-called policy of “deliberate ambiguity.”
Tel Aviv has repeatedly reiterated the mantra that "Israel will not be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons to the Middle East".
That said, the Jewish state stubbornly declines to sign the 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) despite international pressure, insisting that it would be out of line with its national security interests.
Sensitive Weapons at Israeli Airbase?
As for the December 4 report by the New York Times (NYT), it specifically referred to a meticulous analysis of satellite imagery, which showed that the rocket impact on the Sdot Micha Airbase sparked a fire near facilities where sensitive weapons are thought to be stored.
The newspaper quoted Hans Kristensen, director of the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information Project, as saying that there are most likely 25 to 50 nuclear-capable Jericho missile launchers at the airbase, which experts believe can carry nuclear warheads. The Israeli government has not commented on the report yet.
Freudian Slip?
In a separate recent development related to the matter, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said last month that a statement by Israeli Minister for Jerusalem Affairs and Heritage Amihai Eliyahu about the possibility of nuking the Gaza Strip had triggered many questions, including about the nuclear arsenal of the Jewish state.
"This has brought up a huge number of questions. The first and foremost issue is that it has come to the fore that we are hearing official statements about the existence of nuclear weapons! The following questions that everyone has is where are the international organizations, where is the IAEA [the International Atomic Energy Agency], and where are the inspectors?" Zakharova told Russian media.
She commented after Eliyahu said in an interview with Radio Kol BaRama that "one of the possible options" for Israel in its war with Hamas was dropping a nuclear bomb on the Gaza Strip. The minister also opposed allowing any humanitarian aid into the Palestinian enclave, reacting to the proposal by saying that Tel Aviv "would not hand the Nazis humanitarian aid."
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office was quick to respond by stating that Eliyahu’s remarks “are not based in reality” and that the minister had been suspended from cabinet meetings “until further notice.”
How Many Suspected Nukes Does Israel Possess?
Israel's military stockpile purportedly includes between 80 and 400 nuclear warheads, according to various sources.
Insiders argue that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) possess land, air, and sea-based means for delivering these warheads, forming a nuclear triad.
The backbone of this triad reportedly consists of submarine-launched cruise missiles as well as medium and intercontinental ballistic missiles, with Israeli Air Force long-range warplanes on call to perform nuclear interdiction and strategic strikes.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIRPI), in turn, believes that Israel has about 80 nuclear warheads.
"Of these, approximately 30 are gravity bombs for delivery by aircraft. The remaining 50 weapons are for delivery by Jericho II medium-range ballistic missiles, which are believed to be based with their mobile launchers in caves at a military base east of Jerusalem. The operational status of a new Jericho III intermediate-range ballistic missile is unknown. In 2013 Israel conducted a launching test of a ‘rocket propulsion system’, which appeared to be for a Jericho III missile," the SIRPI points out on its website.
The exact number of the purported Israeli warheads remains anybody’s guess, with former US President Jimmy Carter once stating that "Israel has 300 or more, nobody knows exactly how many" nuclear weapons.
How Did it All Start? (in Brief)
Sources say that Israel's first Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion was committed to his country acquiring nuclear weapons, which he claimed were allegedly needed to prevent the recurrence of the Holocaust.
By 1952, then-Israel Atomic Energy Commission chief Ernst David Bergmann sought nuclear collaboration with the French, which included Israeli scientists' work at France's nuclear facilities and expertise sharing, especially with those who had experience on the Manhattan Project, a US-led program of research and development undertaken during World War II to produce the first nuclear weapons.
Does the Jewish State Have a Nuclear Program?
In a first-ever apparent nod to the Israeli nuclear program, Time magazine reported on December 13, 1960, that a non-Communist and non-NATO country had made an "atomic development".
Three days later, the UK media declared that the country in question was Israel. Shortly after, on December 18, 1960, John McCone, the then-chairman of the US Atomic Energy Commission, confirmed the construction of the Dimona nuclear reactor in the Negev desert by Israel. The New York Times further reported that France was providing assistance to the Jewish state in its purported nuclear program.
A picture taken on March 8, 2014 show a partial view of the Dimona nuclear power plant in the southern Israeli Negev desert.
© AFP 2023 / JACK GUEZ
The information prodded then-Prime Minister Ben-Gurion at the time to make what became the only statement by an Israeli Prime Minister about the Dimona reactor. In December 1960, he told Israeli lawmakers that the government was building a 24 megawatt reactor "which will serve the needs of industry, agriculture, health, and science", and that it "is designed exclusively for peaceful purposes."
Bergmann, however, insisted that "There is no distinction between nuclear energy for peaceful purposes or warlike ones" and that "We [Israel] shall never again be led as lambs to the slaughter."
NBC was the first news outlet to make the first public report about Israel's alleged nuclear capability. In January 1969, the broadcaster argued that Israel had decided "to embark on a crash course program to produce a nuclear weapon," and that the Jewish state possessed or would soon be in possession of such a device.
Based on a report released in 2013 by the non-profit organization, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, it was asserted that Israel initiated the production of nuclear weapons in 1967, with the creation of its first two nuclear bombs.
The study says that Israel has been ostensibly making nuclear weapons, that is, two per year on average. However, production supposedly ceased in 2004. The report goes on to claim that Israel currently possesses 80 nuclear warheads and possesses sufficient fissile material for an additional 190 warheads.
To sum up, it’s safe to assume the guessing game over the Israeli nuclear weapons will almost sure go ahead in the years to come.