British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is keeping his eyes on his party’s poll numbers, which aren’t looking good as the opposition Labour party continues to surge higher than the governing Conservative party. So on Thursday, Sunak was forced to defend his new Rwanda asylum bill, telling a press conference this past week that he would “finish the job” despite criticism from the Tory right.
A vote is likely due for Tuesday, yet Sunak has said he will not treat the vote as a “confidence matter” - meaning he will not stand down or call an election if he loses. The bill will take just 29 Tory MPs to vote it down.
In spring of 2022, Sunak, then-UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, reportedly had ethical objections to former Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s immigration policy that planned to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda.
But now, with faltering poll numbers and seeking to make those in his party happy, the prime minister is adopting the Rwanda plan as his flagship migration policy. It’s a troubling turn for Sunak, as a son of immigrants he was never whole heartedly invested in such a tough immigration law in the first place, and now he is treating the policy as his saving grace.
But thus far, the government has paid Rwanda 240 million pounds ($301 million), yet no deportations have taken place, and in mid-November, the UK’s Supreme Court ruled the plan unlawful.
The European Court of Human Rights even blocked flights to Rwanda from taking off, prompting Sunak to unveil his bill that would block legal reasons as to why planes could not fly people to Rwanda. But then, Robert Jenrick, the immigration minister quit his role because Sunak’s bill was a “triumph of hope over experience”, according to his resignation letter.
“The stakes for the country are too high for us not to pursue the stronger protections required to end the merry-go-round of legal challenges which risk paralyzing the scheme and negating its intended deterrent,” he wrote.
Sunak’s bill, which was supposed to garner him favor amongst voters and his own party, may actually cause trouble for him. The bill could make Sunak seem cruel or unethical, in the eyes of those on the left. And as for his own party, the bill may seem completely ineffective if it circles back to the courts.
In 2022, the UK’s net migration numbers reached a record high of 745,000. Some of this is due in part because the UK is no longer a part of the Dublin Regulation following Brexit. This Regulation of the European Union determines which EU member state is responsible for assessing an asylum seeker’s application, but it also helps break up the responsibility of hosting asylum seekers across the bloc.
And in mid-March the British government launched their “Homes for Ukraine” project, which allowed Ukrainian refugees free accommodation in exchange for each UK household receiving a payment of 350 pounds ($428.7). But by early August, less than 25% of Britons who had sheltered Ukrainians agreed to continue doing so for more than a year.
Following that data, by late August the Refugees Minister Lord Richard Harrington asked the Treasury to increase Britons’ “thank you payments” from 350 pounds to 700 pounds out of fear that households in Britain would no longer continue hosting Ukrainians.