Europe’s defenses are “in deep s***,” with its militaries expected to run out of ammunition to defend themselves within hours of a major conflict breaking out, says Marc Thys, a retired lieutenant general and former Vice Chief of Defense of the Belgium’s Armed Forces.
“Inventories are extremely low, especially when it comes to high-quality ammunition,” Thys said in an interview with Germany’s Bayerischer Rundfunk broadcaster. “If you order today, for some types of ammunition it will take up to seven years to receive your order. Even with the simplest NATO standard 5.56 mm ammunition, if we sign a contract today, it will take twelve months to get.”
Thys, who first made headlines in December warning that Belgium’s military would have to resort to throwing “stones after just a few hours” in a conflict due to severe ammo shortages, now emphasizes that Brussels and the West in general are in trouble not just far as ammunition goes, but as far as major weapons systems are concerned as well.
“You can be sure that our opponents, whether they are in Moscow or in Beijing or anywhere else in the world, know about the ammunition shortage,” the former commander added, without specifying how Russia or China would launch aggression against Belgium, or what might motivate them to do so.
Thys honed in on how NATO allowed itself to get into its current predicament, hinting that decades of alliance aggression against smaller, weaker adversaries in distant Third World countries have caused its militaries to atrophy.
“Our armies are designed for expeditionary operations. These are small contingents with few logistics and very little if any ammunition consumption. Suddenly, we have found ourselves in a time of open war again,” Thys said. “I know Germany had about 5,000 tanks in the late 1980s. Today Germany has between 200 and 300 tanks. I’m not saying the Bundeswehr has to go back to 5,000, but this gap is enormous,” he stressed.
The West has to get used to a post-post-Cold War era of heightened defense spending, while the defense industry must be reorganized, according to the former Belgian commander. “If you want to change Europe politically, the knife has to be at your throat and the blood has to start dripping, then things will start to change,” he suggested.
European countries have contributed tens of billions of euros-worth of arms and ammunition to the US-led proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, sending tanks, armored vehicles, air defense systems, radars, artillery, cruise missiles, and other pricy defense hardware, paring domestic armories to the bone. Thys’ warning about Belgium’s ammunition shortages has been echoed by officials in other major NATO countries, including Germany and Italy (where officials have said militaries have enough ammo to last 48 hours) and Britain, where top brass has warned the island would as little as a day’s worth of ammo if it was caught in a conflict with Russia.
Belgium has contributed €330 million (about $358.25 million US) in weapons support for Kiev over the past 24 months on a bilateral basis, and an unknown amount via EU institutions. Belgian weapons deliveries have included Iveco LMV tactical vehicles, M113 armored personnel carriers, F-16 fighter jets (pledged for 2025), surface-to-air and anti-tank guided missiles, mortars, aerial and naval drones, thousands of small arms (including various FN rifles), and miscellaneous equipment ranging from flak jackets and night vision goggles to generators and sleeping bags.