Israel’s war cabinet has reportedly failed to reach a consensus on when and how to respond to Iran’s weekend missile and drone barrage, with Israeli media reporting that US pressure has complicated planning.
“There will be a response,” an anonymous Israeli official was quoted as saying by Israel Hayom. However, a final decision has not been made, and the cabinet is divided over what the form the response could take and its timing, according to a Times of Israel report.
US media have reported that President Biden told the Israeli prime minister that Washington wouldn’t support any offensive action against Iran, calling the coordinated defense of Israeli airspace together with the UK, France and Jordan a “win” and promising “ironclad” US support for Tel Aviv going forward.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told media on Sunday that the US doesn’t “seek a wider war in the region. We don’t seek a war with Iran. And I think I’ll leave it at that.”
US Has Only Itself to Blame
“The US is always in complicated situations, and most of the time they can only blame themselves,” Dr. Marco Carnelos, a veteran Italian diplomat and former Middle East advisor to Prime Ministers Prodi and Belusconi, told Sputnik, commenting on the strategic bind Washington has found itself in the wake of Iran’s counterstrike.
“The Biden administration will continue to attempt a quite difficult balancing act between the necessity to avoid an escalation and its ‘ironclad commitment’ to Israel’s security, which in some cases is a contradiction in terms,” the diplomat explained.
“It’s becoming a more and more difficult circle to square, especially in a difficult and highly polarized electoral year. The US needs to buy time, until November, [but] are we so sure that all the other players are keen to sell some time to Washington?”
As far as Israel’s response is concerned, Dr. Carnelos says that without US help, it could come in the form of activating its regional proxies, who are admittedly “not quite [as] effective” as those their adversary. Such a step could also “backfire,” the observer says, noting that even an escalation caused by proxies may be something the US is looking to avoid.
Ultimately, “the ball is now in the Israeli court” as far as the response is concerned, Carnelos believes.
“Iran has no further steps to contemplate, it can wait and see, although it could prepare its contingency plans,” he said, pointing out that the strikes over the weekend gave Tehran “a complete map of Israeli defense capabilities.”
That means next time, if Israel responds with force despite warnings not to do so, “another [Iranian] attack could not be largely preannounced as it has been this time, and above all…could be carried out with far more lethal and accurate modalities,” Carnelos warned.