The Russian Defense Ministry announced Monday that troops from Battlegroup Center has completed the liberation of the settlement of Semyonovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic, about 7 km northwest of Avdeyevka and about 15 km northwest of the city of Donetsk.
The operation, part of a broader advance against Ukrainian and foreign mercenary forces in areas including Novoaleksandrovka, Arkhangelskoye, Tarasovka and Zavetnoye, has sparked a mild panic in Kiev and Washington, with former presidential advisor Oleg Soskin blaming Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky for the “enormous deterioration” at the front, and suggesting that since his appointment in February, “all the time, almost every day, settlements are being surrendered one by one.”
“We need to freeze the situation. We need a ceasefire, because there can be no offensive, no return to the 1991 borders, in general the line cannot be held,” Soskin warned.
American ‘newspaper of record’ the New York Times shared in the dour assessment, running a story entitled “Ukraine Retreats From Villages on Eastern Front as It Awaits US Aid,” and citing Syrsky’s complaints about his forces being outgunned and the situation at the front “worsening” as Russia “attempt[s] to seize the strategic initiative and break through the front line.”
Syrsky confirmed that the fighting around villages north and west of Donetsk constitutes the “most difficult situation” across the 1,000 km front, with the Ukrainian retreat from Semyonovka, as well as the nearby village of Berdichi, signaling a breakthrough past the defensive lines set up west of Avdeyevka after the town’s liberation by Russian forces in February.
“The capture of Semyonovka is a great victory for Battlegroup Center,” veteran Russian military observer Evgeny Mikhailov told Sputnik, explaining that the operation to liberate the DPR settlement not only opens up opportunities to encircle Ukrainian forces across a broad area, but to build on momentum to force enemy lines to crumble.
“Beyond this, great prospects are opening up. Firstly, the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the Berdichi area. From there the road opens, and an opportunity appears to encircle and defeat the Ukrainian troops that have accumulated in large concentrations in the areas of Selidovo and Pokrovsk. And further on is the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration,” Mikhailov said.
Syrsky and company apparently did not expect such a speedy capture of Semyonovka, the observer believes, suggesting that the pace of the operations indicates that Ukraine’s forces were unable to create a strong second fortified defensive line west of Avdeyevka.
“The Russian military is now capturing important strategic objects virtually daily which Ukrainian forces did not have time to prepare to defend. In general, big victories await us in the near future, let’s put it this way,” Mikhailov said.
Based on the pace of the Russian advance, Mikhailov says it’s difficult to estimate where Ukraine’s defensive lines in the Donbass will end up.
“They wanted, but did not have the time to build up a decent line of defense, and did not expect such a quick offensive and breakthrough by the Russian Army. Berdichi will fall, and everything else will start crumbling…I think it’s unlikely that they will have the time to properly concentrate their forces in this direction. Moreover, even those forces that are now being deployed there are more or less elite units, sent to try to hold back the advance of Russian forces. But this is of little use, because in principle, we have an advantage in firepower, a tactical advantage, and the fighting spirit of our units is much higher. Accordingly, I doubt that any line of defense can be created until we reach areas with powerful defensive structures. This includes near Slavyansk and near Kramatorsk. [Otherwise], what already exists elsewhere will of course be able to hold back our forces in some areas, but not very powerfully. That is, we are seeing that the front is crumbling, and I think it makes no sense to talk about a serious line of defense.”
Mikhailov expects the Russian strategy of breaking through heavily fortified Ukrainian lines to continue along the established pattern – approaching enemy forces from the flanks, encircling them, dropping KAB and FAB heavy bombs on their positions, using artillery and aviation and then approaching with assault groups, cutting off supplies.