The United States reportedly provided Iran with assurances after the attack against Haniyeh in July that Israel and the US would move constructively towards the establishment of a Palestinian state, ending Israel’s military aggression against its neighbors and Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, where over 42,000 have died according to figures reported by the territory’s health ministry. Tel Aviv’s deadly attack against Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon last week dashed hopes of a cessation of violence as Israel claims it is preparing for a broader invasion of Lebanon.
“I've seen the videos and you can see the missiles continue to rain down and hit targets. Israel is imposing a news blackout,” former CIA analyst Larry Johnson said. “They don't want the knowledge out there about what happened. But Iran made sure that it was not going to hit and run the risk of killing hundreds or thousands of Israeli civilians.”
“They were not going to act like the Israelis,” the analyst claimed. “They really consider themselves, if you will, more humane, more honorable, and by virtue of their action, I think they can make that case.”
Johnson claimed Iran was forced to strike Israel after false assurances from the United States that Israel would cease attacks on its neighbors after its killing of Haniyeh. Iran previously launched a retaliatory attack on Israel in April after Tel Aviv’s bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria killed two Iranian generals. The codename Operation True Promise was announced for the strike.
Iran’s Tuesday attack, dubbed Operation True Promise II, appears significantly more substantial than April’s strike in which the vast majority of Iranian missiles, rockets and drones were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome. Iran was reportedly able to successfully strike Israeli military targets Tuesday, including an Israeli air base where multiple US-provided F-35 aircraft were hit. Johnson claimed Israel’s attack against Nasrallah would’ve been launched from an F-35; the fighter jet would be key to any Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
The commentator compared Israel’s Iron Dome to the US Patriot missile system, claiming the US is unable to replenish the defense system rapidly enough to allow Israel to fight a long war of attrition.
“Lockheed Martin… can make about one and a half, one and a quarter [missiles] a day,” said Johnson. “I think Israel's in a similar situation… [Iran] put Israel on notice, ‘If you launch any further strikes against us in any retaliation, we're going to hit you harder next time and with more lethality.’ So this right now has a chance to really get out of control.”
“I cannot rule out that Israel is going to try to launch some conventional weapons at Iran, but I think they're going to be defeated,” Johnson claimed.
“Israel may be tempted to try to use a nuclear device against an Iranian target,” he warned. “If that happens then we're going to really be into another dimension, and this is going to get very, very serious. It's already a serious situation, but it will get absolutely dangerous.”
The analyst suggested Israel would not be able to support military engagement against multiple enemies, even with the United States backing it up.
“Israel is not in a position to fight a multi-front war and it does not have the strategic depth to fight wars of attrition. And that's exactly what it's got itself into now,” Johnson pointed out. “It's not going to be able to finish off Hezbollah in a week. It couldn't even finish off Hamas in 12 months. It's not going to be able to finish off Syria, finish off the Houthis or finish off Iran… That's what Israel fails to understand. It does not have the ability to sustain itself in these kinds of operations for an extended period of time.”
“If US ships are involved that are off the coast of Iran, then we'll see Iran react and they may even end up attacking some US ships,” he continued. “But they'll certainly retaliate against Israel. Israel is not out of the woods at all, despite all the delusional nonsense that the extreme Zionist supporters are saying when they say, ‘oh, Iran didn't touch us, Iran didn't hurt us at all.’ Nonsense.”
The development comes as Democrats attempt to hold onto the White House in November’s presidential election, with former President Donald Trump casting himself as a defender of Israel. Vice President Kamala Harris will attempt to do the same, Johnson claimed, while also trying to prevent a regional conflagration in the Middle East before the election.
“The politics are going to dictate a lot of strategic military decisions, unfortunately,” said Johnson.