Officials have claimed no Israeli fatalities after Iran’s retaliatory strike against the country Tuesday, but the US ally’s former projection of power and deterrence in the region may prove to be the most significant casualty of the day’s events, according to one commentator.
The claim was made by Beirut-based journalist Esteban Carrillo on Sputnik’s Fault Lines program Wednesday after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched almost 200 missiles towards Israeli territory. Israel has made efforts to downplay the damage it suffered while Tim Walz and JD Vance boasted of the United States’ ability to intercept a portion of the projectiles during Tuesday’s vice presidential candidates’ debate.
But Iran has claimed some 90% of missiles hit their intended targets while Israeli and US officials have refused to clarify how many projectiles were intercepted, with Israel’s military censor forbidding the publication of details about the attack. A restaurant in Tel Aviv was reportedly damaged – a symbolically important strike at the heart of Israel’s cultural and economic mecca – while multiple missiles landed at or near Israel’s Nevatim Airbase, Tel Nof Airbase and the headquarters of the Mossad.
Although the damage caused by the attack was relatively minimal, Iran landed a significant psychological blow by penetrating Israel’s vaunted Iron Dome defense system with ease, according to Carrillo.
“This is not like the Israeli Air Force when they come into Lebanon, when they go into Gaza or Syria [and] they leave hundreds or dozens of civilians killed every single time when they drop bombs,” noted the analyst. “The Iranians targeted exactly what they wanted to target… multiple air bases, including the one that, apparently, the attack that killed Hezbollah's Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah [was launched from]. The base where the planes took off for that, when they dropped about 100 heavy bombs in the middle of Beirut.”
“Really, it's a new day,” Carrillo declared. “It's a new day for Israel. It's a new day for Iran, for the US, for the resistance axis, for the entire world. And, I think it's also very important to highlight what Iranian officials said afterwards… This is Iran's legitimate right to self-defense, as they claim Israel has when they destroy Lebanon, when they destroy Gaza.”
“Iran waited for three months, almost to the day, after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh,” he continued, referring to Israel’s provocative killing of the former Hamas leader in Tehran in July. “They gave the US time, they gave a chance for a ceasefire in Gaza, just like Hezbollah did. And just like the other factions of the Axis of Resistance have done, giving enough time for negotiation to end. But we have seen now for months on end that Israel sabotages these negotiations day in and day out.”
Israel’s regional deterrence has historically rested on its Iron Dome defense system and the support it enjoys from the United States and other Western allies. The Iron Dome has allowed Israeli citizens to live in relative security while US weapons and military support have carried the implicit threat of a significant retaliation against any attack.
But Iran’s use of hypersonic missiles – a technology not yet possessed by Israel or any of its allies – has proven that Tehran has the ability to bypass the Iron Dome and strike any target within Israeli territory. The country’s newly-revealed vulnerabilities have led to a significant exodus of Israeli citizens, with an estimated half a million fleeing within the first six months’ of Israel’s operation in Gaza, dealing a significant blow to the country’s economy.
Meanwhile, Israel’s most important ally has found itself boxed in by the upcoming presidential election as US President Joe Biden works feverishly to prevent the outbreak of a regional war that could sink Democrats’ chances in November. The Biden administration has worked behind the scenes to attempt to rein in Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu, dissuading it from carrying out a larger retaliatory attack the last time hostilities with Iran broke out in April.
The combination of political and material factors has frustrated Israel’s ability to respond to danger on multiple fronts.
“They do not have the winning hand,” said Carrillo. “In the morning, they actually started trying to come into Lebanon. They have been trying to enter Lebanese territory, Israeli troops.”
“They are getting cut down,” he claimed. “They are getting ambushed. They are getting sent back with their tails between their legs because they do not have the winning hand. So Iran last night warned Israel, ‘Do not miscalculate. Do not miscalculate. Do not think that you can, at this point, hit us again. Because if you do, if you come and you hit Iran,’ they are saying, ‘you are going to face our wrath. You are going to quickly collapse. This is going to be the end of you.’”
“How are we now going to supply Israel in another war?” asked host Jamarl Thomas, suggesting the United States is being stretched thin by providing arms in conflicts around the globe. “Against what, three states? Four states? Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran? And the Houthis. Five states. How are we going to supply weapons for this larger war while the war in Ukraine also continues at a steady pace?”
“Don't forget about Taiwan too,” Carrillo noted, “this planned escalation against China which is also in the wings, which is also something that the US hasn't given up on… Diplomacy is a foreign word for [the US government]... a dirty word even… US officials seem really just hellbent on lining their pockets with money from the weapons companies because at the end of the day, war is just a money-laundering machine.”