How significant are Iran’s nuclear capabilities and what are they used for? Here’s what to know:
Atomic Energy Organization of Iran chief Mohammad Eslami announced earlier this year that the Islamic Republic would build four 1,250 MW reactors at a large new nuclear power plant in Hormozgan province over the coming decade, with the $20 bln project expected to generate some 20,000 MW of energy by 2041. In late 2022, construction of the smaller Darkhovin nuclear power plant with an expected generating capacity of 300 MW kicked off in Khuzestan province.
Iran also has a thriving nuclear educational infrastructure, with nuclear engineering taught at up to two dozen universities, and substantial resources dedicated to the tech and industrial front to maximize nuclear independence.
Origins of Iranian Nuclear Program
Exploring nuclear tech beginning in the 1950s under the US-sponsored ‘Atoms for Peace’ program, Iran finally joined the club of peaceful nuclear energy powers in 2011 with the launch of the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant. Construction of the $4-6 bln facility began in 1975 with assistance from West German contractors, but was frozen in 1979 after the Iranian Revolution.
Construction resumed in the 1990s with Russia’s help, with Russian specialists facilitating the installation of a sole 1,000 MW VVER-1000 reactor, which now provides for up to 2% of Iran’s electricity needs. Construction of two additional VVER-1000s at Bushehr began in 2021, and up to six more could be added later.
French-language map showing major sites of Iran's comprehensive, full-cycle nuclear program, designed to ensure the country's maximum independence in the nuclear field.
© Photo : Yagasi - Semhur - Iran's Nuclear Program
Fruitless Negotiations and Biased Accusations
Decades of tensions with Israel and the US have made a possible military component to the Iranian nuclear program a central topic of discussion in diplomatic circles, with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement signed in 2015 by Iran, the US, Russia, China, the UK, France, Germany, and the EU to restrict Iranian nuclear enrichment activities in exchange for sanctions relief.
The US walked out of the pact in 2018 at Israel’s behest, and talks on getting Washington back into the treaty have broken down, in part over the Biden administration's refusal to remove Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from a sanctions list.
Iran willingly signed onto the JCPOA, as its supreme leaders have issued religious edicts ruling the development of WMDs forbidden by Islam. Nonetheless, US and especially Israeli officials have regularly accused Iran of pursuing the bomb, with long-time Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claiming that Iran is ‘months or weeks’ away from building a nuke since the 1990s, pushing back the timeframe each time his prophesy fails to materialize.
According to the latest International Atomic Energy Agency data, Iran has about 5,750 kg of enriched uranium, including about 165 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% purity.
Amid escalating tensions and the risk of an all-out war between Iran and Israel, Western and Israeli media, officials and think tanks have come out of the woodwork to urge Israel or the US to strike the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities before Tehran builds the bomb. Last week, Foreign Policy magazine published a provocative piece titled “The Case for Destroying Iran’s Nuclear Program Now.”
But CIA Director William Burns said Monday that there is no evidence that Iran wants to build a nuclear weapon. Iranian leaders have spent decades emphasizing that they consider their conventional missile arsenal as their top deterrent against aggression.