Analysis

Hurricane Milton Impact May Surpass Katrina Damage if Tampa Bay Hit

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) - The damage from Hurricane Milton may outclass even the one wrought by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 if it reaches south of Tampa Bay, as it is one of the most vulnerable ports in the United States, experts told Sputnik.
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"Tampa Bay is one of the most vulnerable ports in the USA and has not been hit by a storm since the early 1900s," David Holt, an associate professor of geography at the University of Southern Mississippi, told Sputnik.
"If the storm, even a [category] 3, comes in south of TB [Tampa Bay], it will be beyond Hurricane Katrina impacts! If Milton maintains the Cat [category] 5 storm surge like Katrina (which dropped to a 3 before landfall), we may see damage never before seen in recent history."
The expert noted that Milton ranked as the 4th largest storm after it was recorded at the speed of 180 miles per hour. While it should get a bit weaker as it interacts with wind sheer in the north Gulf of Mexico, it does not necessarily mean it will be weakened.
The latest bulletin released by the National Hurricane Center recategorized Milton as a Category 3 hurricane, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 120 miles per hour. The storm is situated 60 miles from Sarasota, Florida, and moving north-easterly at a pace of 17 mph.
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Kevin Reed, a professor at the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University, noted that even though storm categories are important indicators of intensity and, therefore, potential damage, it does not mean that all major hurricanes are the same.
"For example, Milton is going to make landfall in a populated region of Florida. This is going to lead to more damage than if it had made landfall in a less populated area," Reed said.
Both experts pointed out that that warmer waters increase intensity of storms, and that there likely will be more hurricanes similar to Milton.
The US National Weather Service expects "destructive, potentially catastrophic storm surge, very heavy rainfall, and a few tornadoes" along Florida's west coast. Estimated storm surge rates range between 2 and 13 feet, and as much as 12 inches of rainfall.
Ahead of the storm's anticipated landfall, more than 3,000 flights in the United States were canceled or delayed, according to the latest figures comprised by the FlightAware tracker.
Over 800 flights, or about 90%, were canceled at the Orlando International Airport. The Tampa International Airport registered almost 400 cancellations, while in Miami, 190 flights were canceled, according to the portal.
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US President Joe Biden on Monday signed an executive order declaring a state of emergency in Florida and unlocking federal aid for local authorities to tackle the impact. Evacuations were ordered for millions of local residents.
The storm arrival, due either late Wednesday or early Thursday, comes as the US has been widely criticized over its aid response to victims of Hurricane Helene, which made landfall as a Category 4 storm in Florida before carving out a path of destruction across six US states in late September.
The cyclone prompted the deaths of more than 230 people across Florida, Georgia, Virginia, Tennessee and the Carolinas.
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