“Certainly without Sinwar, Hamas is weakened further at both the organizational and leadership levels. He knew Hebrew and had studied Israeli society from inside very well. In addition, he was a charismatic leader," he explains.
Dr. Tamer Qarmout, associate professor in public policy at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, offers a similar take on the subject, noting that Sinwar’s death “is going to present a great challenge for Hamas” because “he has shaped the trajectory of the movement, his leadership style over the last 10 or 15 years.”
Despite that, Sinwar’s death is unlikely to help facilitate the release of Israeli hostages taken by Hamas last year.
“On the contrary, the death of Sinwar could become an additional cause for seeking revenge. In addition, what will they get in return of releasing the hostages? This is the question that should be raised. Israel has been repeatedly emphasizing that it will pursue Hamas fighters no matter where they shelter themselves,” says Dr. Geukjian.
“If Hamas has hundreds of thousands of affiliates or supporters, I'm sure there will be many people who will follow the Sinwar doctrine or the Sinwar legacy and will continue on the same path,” explains Dr. Qarmout.
Dr. Qarmout also postulates that, even if Hamas were to be wiped out, other Palestinian “political parties or ideologies” would emerge to challenge Israel “as long as [Israeli] occupation continues to exist.”
As for who exactly may become Sinwar’s replacement, it was not immediately clear. Dr. Geukjian mentioned Khaled Mashal as a possible option while Dr. Qarmout mentioned rumors about Sinwar’s brother, who “has this symbolic weight in the military wing” of Hamas, being alive.