"To date, Trump and his team have not offered a plan for constraining dealing with Russia’s strategic arsenal nor has President Putin. But it is likely that the two presidents will engage in direct discussions regarding the conflict in Ukraine, and other issues, and it is possible, if not likely that they will discuss options for mutual constraints following the expiration of New START," Kimball said.
Nuclear arms control between the United States and Russia is a necessity for both countries, the ACA head said.
"While trust may be at an all-time low, that is all the more reason for the two sides to avoid unconstrained strategic nuclear competition now or in the future," Kimball added.
No New START Deal Likely Before Expiry
The United States and Russia are unlikely to conclude a new formal agreement to replace the New START arms control treaty before it expires in February 2026, Kimball elaborated.
"For now, it is most practical and likely that we may see progress on nuclear arms control through further bilateral talks between the White House and the Kremlin. The negotiation of a new, formal framework agreement between the two countries would be complex and time consuming to achieve and is very unlikely before Feb. 5, 2026 when New START expires," he said.
It is possible that US President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agree on "a simple, bilateral understanding promising that neither side shall increase the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads beyond the New START limits," the ACA head noted.
"Such a deal could be monitored with a good degree of confidence though national technical means of intelligence by each side, and it would buy time for the start of formal talks on a more comprehensive and durable framework agreement," Kimball added.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov stated that Russia's return to compliance with New START would only be possible if the U.S. abandoned its hostile stance towards Moscow. Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov emphasized that dialogue on strategic arms control with the US was impossible as long as Washington maintained its anti-Russian policies.
Congress Can Back US-Russia Arms Control
The idea of arms control between the US and Russia could receive bipartisan support from the US Congress, the ACA director emphasized.
"Right now, there is very little bipartisan support for in Congress on anything but if the White House were to engage with Russia on nuclear arms control and appropriately brief members of Congress on the President’s goals and objectives, it is very likely that bipartisan support would develop around the concept," Kimball said.