What Does Russia Expect From Trump 2.0? Senior Russian Lawmaker Explains
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Russia has no illusions about Donald Trump’s return to the White House, Konstantin Kosachev, Vice Speaker of Russia’s Federation Council, told Sputnik.
“I’m sure that Trump will be very uncomfortable for Russia. I use this word on purpose, an uncomfortable interlocutor, partner, opponent – whatever you want to call him, because he will fiercely defend his vision of the national interests of the United States. I specifically say that he will advocate not for the national interests of the United States, but for his own vision of what those national interests are, which in some respects would be reasonable, and in others, in my opinion, would be erroneous,” he said.
“That's why on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 means Trump is a completely bad opponent for Russia and 10 means he’s a great partner for Russia, I would personally put my expectations of Trump right now somewhere between 3 and 4,” Kosachev added.
🚨'Trump will be very uncomfortable for Russia' — senior Russian lawmaker Konstantin Kosachev (Vice Speaker of Federation Council) to Sputnik pic.twitter.com/kskZ2xeycF
— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) November 13, 2024
What explains Moscow’s pessimism about Trump’s second term? Two issues stand out in particular, according to Kosachev. The first is that Trump is a difficult interlocutor on arms control negotiations due to his “certain internal repulsion” to treating other countries as equals to the United States. The second area of concern is that Trump is likely to put pressure on Russia to distance itself from China and Iran, two important strategic partners.
“This will be a very big problem for Russia, because of course we are interested in solving some problems through cooperation and dialogue with the United States of America,” he said. “But I am confident that we will never be willing to turn our backs on our current partners, who let me remind you once again have behaved with the highest degree of quality and decency towards Russia in these difficult times, for the sake of purely theoretical gains.”
🚨TWO REASONS WHY RUSSIA ISN’T THRILLED BY TRUMP 2.0
— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) November 13, 2024
1. Trump doesn’t believe in treating other countries as equals.
2. Trump will pressure Russia to abandon China & Iran.
Senior Russian lawmaker Konstantin Kosachev (Vice Speaker of Federation Council) to Sputnik pic.twitter.com/wzvh3JXwy5
There is also skepticism in Moscow on whether Trump will be a meaningful improvement over Biden on the issue of Ukraine. Last week, The Wall Street Journal published a Ukraine peace deal blueprint that is reportedly being discussed by Trump advisors. The main points of the plan include freezing the current front line and declaring a demilitarized zone along its length, sending European troops as “peacekeepers” to Ukraine, and delaying the question of Ukraine’s NATO membership by 20 years.
Such a deal would be a nonstarter for Moscow, Kosachev told Sputnik. He explained that the root of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a fundamental divergence in values between the two countries. Russia cannot accept a Ukraine that persecutes its Russian minority and glorifies Nazi collaborators during World War II. Unless and until there is a paradigm shift in Ukrainian politics, there can be no lasting peace between the two countries.
“We see what's happening in the Middle East, right? Sometimes it seems that one side or the other has signed a ceasefire. The shelling and terrorist attacks stop. Everything appears to have calmed down. But in reality nothing has calmed down. The fighting will reignite with renewed strength, say in a month, a year or five years, because the Arab-Israeli conflict remains unresolved.”
“This is precisely how it will erupt over and over again in Russian-Ukrainian relations, if we reduce the whole thing to a ceasefire, establish de facto control over the areas where the line of contact now runs, and leave everything else for later. Freezing the conflict works exclusively for the benefit of Ukraine,” he added.
🚨Russia won’t accept Trump’s reported Ukraine peace plan — senior Russian lawmaker Konstantin Kosachev (Vice Speaker of Federation Council) to Sputnik.
— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) November 13, 2024
The plan recently outlined in the Wall Street Journal fails to address Russia’s fundamental concerns, he said. pic.twitter.com/5Zx6QSOTYY
Trump’s victory has sparked a media frenzy about the future of NATO. For example, NPR ran an article with the headline “Trump's second term could force NATO into a reckoning with its relationship with the US,” while some Western pundits have gone so far as to suggest that Trump could pull the United States out of NATO if other member states don’t radically increase their defense spending.
Such a scenario seems highly unlikely from Russia’s perspective, Kosachev
“I believe that it will not happen for the simple reason that NATO is the most important mechanism of world leadership for the United States. Because it is through the mechanism of NATO that the most powerful European states are tied to the United States,” he said. “And if and when the United States no longer has this instrument, when Europeans start building their own sovereign policy, the continent will not be as pro-American as it is now. So, from my point of view, it would be a profound mistake for any American leader, from the vantage point of American interests and their claims to world hegemony, to destroy the mechanism of NATO.”
“I say this with great regret,” Kosachev added. “I would very much like to see the collapse of NATO for the sake of global security, global stability, and global peace.”
🚨Trump unfortunately will not destroy NATO – senior Russian lawmaker Konstantin Kosachev (Vice Speaker of Federation Council) to Sputnik.
— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) November 13, 2024
NATO is too valuable as a tool of geopolitically dominating Europe for any American president to abandon it, he said. pic.twitter.com/oqYRVo69Ur
