Strategic analyst Paolo Raffone (CIPI Foundation, Brussels) explains how Washington’s role is evolving:
“European NATO members may play a role to support the military needs of Ukraine within a framework coordinated by the US that remains the single largest armament contributor.”
He describes a triangulation scheme:
The US provides military equipment to EU NATO states
Ukraine buys that equipment from those states
Purchases are covered by EU funds
“Technically, European NATO members are the sellers — but it ensures the equipment is effectively paid for by Ukraine using EU funds. NATO as an entity would not be directly involved… national governments will do it. At best, NATO will coordinate the scheme.”
Who pays and who supplies?
“UK, France, Germany and Poland are high on the list. However, the idea is that all European NATO members should participate.”
And what can they afford?
“Despite announced increases in spending, EU countries will need years to become effective armament producers… The munitions immediately available depend on US willingness to sell — and EU/Ukraine capacity to pay.”