Russia “continues to hold a stronger hand of cards” throughout the ongoing peace negotiations, while Ukraine is “already functionally bankrupt,” says former British diplomat Ian Proud.
The one certainty in any peace deal is that Ukraine “will become militarily unaligned,” with NATO membership “finally have been taken permanently off of the table.”
According to Proud, after the Ukraine conflict is resolved, Russia’s army “will be the most battle-hardened and well equipped that it has been since the end of World War II.”
“Russia's core aim to prevent NATO expansion into Ukraine will decisively have been achieved. Russia will have managed the economic shocks and consequences of war far better than Ukraine and its Western sponsors, in particular Britain and Europe,” he says.