"With crude and oil product flows through the Strait of Hormuz plunging from around 20 mb/d before the war to a trickle currently, limited capacity available to bypass the crucial waterway, and storage filling up, Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 mb/d. In the absence of a rapid resumption of shipping flows, supply losses are set to increase," the report read.
The document pointed out that global oil supplies will decrease by 8 million barrels per day in March due to production cuts in several Middle Eastern countries as a result of the crisis over the Strait of Hormuz, but this decrease will be partially offset by Russia and Kazakhstan.
In a report, the IEA also lowered its forecast for the growth rate of global oil production by the end of 2026 by half — by 1.28 million barrels per day to 1.11 million barrels per day, and now expects production at 107.23 million barrels per day.
The report also noted that eight OPEC+ countries with voluntary restrictions increased oil production in February by 290,000 barrels per day to 33.53 million barrels, and produced 970,00 barrels per day above the quota level.
"OPEC+ crude production fell 260 kb/d to 43.1 mb/d in February as higher supply from Gulf producers including Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia – collectively higher by 400 kb/d m-o-m – failed to offset sharply lower Russian supply," the report said.