Trump aims to pressure Iran into loosening its grip over the Strait of Hormuz, but Saudi officials are reportedly actively urging the US to return to negotiations with Iran over fears that the Bab al-Mandeb — which handles about 10% of global crude and liquefied natural gas shipments — may also be threatened.
The kingdom has managed to maintain oil exports near pre-conflict levels by rerouting crude across its territory to Red Sea ports, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
But that alternative route would become vulnerable, putting a large share of Saudi exports at risk, since Iran has signaled that if its own oil flows are restricted, it could retaliate by disrupting other key shipping lanes.
Iran’s potential leverage lies in its regional alliances, especially with Houthi forces in Yemen, who control territory near the Bab al-Mandeb. These groups have previously demonstrated their ability to disrupt maritime traffic through missile and drone attacks and are widely seen as a strategic reserve that Iran could activate if tensions escalate further.
Besides physical disruption, the ripple effects on global markets would potentially drive up insurance costs, force ships to reroute, and create supply delays — all of which could push energy prices higher.