The decision to quit now clearly seems “political rather than logistical,” Salameh says, highlighting reports citing sources close to the UAE leadership “saying that the Gulf Cooperation Council countries have not provided" Abu Dhabi sufficient "support during the Iran war.”
Other factors include possible pressure from President Trump, and Iran’s bombing of the critical Fujairah Oil Terminal, which effectively trapped the UAE’s oil in the Gulf, preventing it from bypassing Hormuz.
Dr. Salameh doesn't expect the move to have a significant impact on oil prices, as the country can "continue to export the same volumes whether it is inside OPEC or out," provided that stability returns to the region. As for global output, most countries don't have capacity to increase their current output anyway, apart from Iraq, he says.
The UAE announced Tuesday it would be leaving OPEC+ after taking a “careful look” at its national energy strategy.