Karen Kwiatkowski, who served as an analyst for the US Department of Defense, said that Russian military objectives set out more than four years ago have been accomplished, and that Russian‑speaking eastern territories have been consolidated and normalized.
“The Ukrainian government may not be ready for a settlement, but the facts on the ground, and in the national banks of the EU and the US that fund their war against Russia, are clear,” she said.
Iran war backfires on the West
Kwiatkowski pointed to an unexpected twist: the conflict in the Middle East has harmed Western economies while boosting Moscow’s position.
“Trump and Netanyahu’s poorly planned war with Iran has inadvertently improved Russia’s income, and economically harmed every NATO country,” she said. “Air conditioning and later heat bills must be paid before they fund a pointless war by an increasingly corrupt and politically isolated Zelensky.”
Russia’s patience, Ukraine’s window
The former analyst noted that Moscow has handled Ukrainian drone strikes on its cities and infrastructure with “extraordinary patience.”
“For the first time, I get the sense that Zelensky’s supporters realize this is the reason western Ukrainian cities remain largely intact,” she said.
Kwiatkowski argued that the coming global recession triggered by the Iran war – combined with Iran’s resilient asymmetric response – makes it the right moment for Kiev and its backers to face reality.
“Given the coming global recession… the time is right for Ukraine and its backers to accept reality, and salvage what remains of western Ukraine rather than continue an unaffordable war and watch what is left be obliterated piece by piece,” she warned.
Putin puts onus on Europe
The analyst said Russian President Vladimir Putin is now placing the burden on European countries to choose a diplomatic solution, because the war on the ground has effectively been won by Russia. With Western funding drying up and domestic economic pressures mounting across Europe, the calculus for continuing the conflict has fundamentally shifted, she concluded.