ESTONIA
The media consider Russia's refusal to supply allied Belarus with cheap gas as a new turn in the Russian policy of exerting pressure on objectionable regimes. "Analysts believe that Russia does not want to tolerate a situation where Belarus is getting big profits by exporting to Russia its produce made with the help of the (cheap) Russian gas but at the normal (market) price." "A rise in gas prices as punishment for Ukraine, and later on, Georgia was called Russia's energy weapon, while Belarus was still trustworthy in Russian eyes. Now Lukashenko's Belarus seems to have lost its status of a favorite." (Postimees, December 20).
Commentators have focused on the reasons behind the Russian-Belarusian gas conflict. "Discord between Moscow and Belarus over the plan of the Russian energy giant Gazprom to control Belarusian gas pipelines was one of the causes for the current conflict. The second reason was the Belarusian President's policy of blocking the Russian plan for the unification of Russia and Belarus. Finally, Moscow would like to distance itself from the Lukashenko regime, which is increasingly becoming an outcast in the West, thereby impeding the Russian President's efforts to promote rapprochement between the West and Russia." (Postimees, December 12).
LATVIA
Most experts are positive about the plans of the Russian oil company LUKoil to increase the number of its gas stations in Latvia (the company intends to buy the existing stations and to build new ones). However, they are worried that this company is Russian. "LUKoil's intention to expand its presence in the Latvian market has both positive and negative aspects. LUKoil is an old player on the Latvian fuel market, and feels at home there. For this reason, it has a more flexible price policy. Its goal is long-term business rather than a desire to make a quick buck. However, this is a big private Russian company, and the Russian issue is politically sensitive." (Neatkariga rita avize, December 19).
Some publications are critical of the Polish veto to the beginning of talks on a new EU-Russian partnership agreement. "Poland achieved what it wanted - the EU-Russian talks did not start because of economic differences. Russia's response was immediate: if the EU is not content that only Poland was punished for exporting products with fake certificates, sanctions will be imposed on all EU members. In principle, Russia is making it clear to the EU and its new members that it has enough effective economic measures at its disposal." (Neatkariga rita avize, December 20).
LITHUANIA
Commentators are concerned about the Russian capital's active and sometimes secret influence on the domestic political forces. "The biggest sponsors of Lithuanian politicians are linked with Russian state monopolies and tend to appear in the right place at the right time... More often than not, they support pro-Russian parties and their leaders with lump sums running into hundreds of thousands (dollars), and disappear right after the elections. On the eve of other elections, they are replaced with other sponsors that are connected with the big neighbor's energy or military industries. It is probable that some of the former official sponsors continue supporting the same parties, but are doing this unofficially." (Veidas, December 20).
UKRAINE
The Russian President's Ukrainian visit has demonstrated a certain improvement in bilateral relations. However, in the opinion of certain media, Moscow will not give up the implementation of its geopolitical plans in Ukraine. At the same time, commentators are convinced that Russia will not be able to return to pre-Orange relations because Kiev's political loyalty no longer depends on Russian economic preferences. "Moscow hopes that economic pressure and media dominance will allow it to impose on Ukraine re-integration with Russia... The President, government, and opposition are competing for the 'Russian resource', but all of them want to be independent from Russia." (Gazeta po-Ukrainsky, December 22).
Journalists believe that it is absurd to hope for the relaxation of tensions and elaboration of a common position on disputable issues regardless of talks between the Presidents. "There are no personal relations between Putin and Yushchenko, nor can there be any - their political and economic goals, and plans for the future are too different." (Glavred, December 25).
ARMENIA
Experts focus on the difficulties Armenia is going through because of the clash of geopolitical interests in the South Caucasus. "Today, the South Caucasus is a zone of instability and rivalry of the great powers, which creates considerable difficulties for Armenia... Russia's sanctions against Georgia seriously affect Armenia's economy, in particular, the cargo traffic passing through Georgia from Russia and other countries... Or take the tensions that have developed between the West and Iran. Apart from destabilizing the situation in the region, they threaten Armenia with problems with steady supplies of Iranian gas." (panARMENIAN.Net).
GEORGIA
The media are criticizing the authorities for their failure to come up with an adequate energy policy. "First, they said they will buy gas from Azerbaijan, then they switched to Turkey, and later started talking about Iran. Now they have opted for Russia." (24 saati, December 25).
"The choice is between buying Russian gas, or spoiling relations with the U.S. by buying Iranian gas... Clearly, we should buy gas from Russia. Lack of gas will cause a very serious government crisis. Hungry and freezing people may be driven to terrible things." (Akhali Versia, December 22).
AZERBAIJAN
The press expects improvement in relations between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, which have seriously deteriorated because of Moscow. "Turkmenbashi was ready to barter gas for fresh drinking water but the Azerbaijani leaders renounced this highly advantageous deal at the request of Moscow, which wanted to preserve mechanisms of exerting pressure on Turkmenistan. The second blow at the bilateral relations was made right after the OSCE summit in Istanbul in 1999, when Geidar Aliyev torpedoed an agreement on the TransCaspian gas pipeline, also at Moscow's insistence... No wonder, relations between our two countries became much worse." (Day.Az, December 23).
Journalists point out that a stake on using force in the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict over Nagorny Karabakh, which Moscow is ostensibly provoking by proxy, may become a catch with disastrous consequences. "Informed sources report that a group of pro-Russian officials in the President's entourage believe that Azerbaijan should use the election campaign, which will last in Armenia for almost a year, in order to return by force at least part of the occupied territory. They are trying to convince the President that in case of hostilities Russia will maintain neutrality because it is not happy about growing pro-Western attitudes in Yerevan... Such developments may become a catch for Azerbaijan." (Zerkalo, December 19).
KAZAKHSTAN
The media have been writing about Russia's concern over instability in the Turkmen energy market. "Sudden death of the Turkmen President has alarmed Russia. The Kremlin is worried that the new Turkmen government will cooperate with the West on a bigger scale than with Gazprom and RosUkrEnergo, which are linked with the Russian top echelons. For the latter, this country is the main source of income from resale of Central Asian gas. Meanwhile, the EU and the U.S. are now trying to seize Turkmen gas flow from Russia in order to switch to direct gas supplies." (Kompromat.kz, December 25).
UZBEKISTAN
Experts believe that Ashgabat will become a scene of a fierce power struggle, but the opposition will not be able to take part in it. "For the time being, there is no man who could become the Turkmen leader. The situation which has taken shape in Turkmenistan may affect all countries in the region. Turkmenistan is too weak to cope with the situation on its own;"
"The Turkmen opposition leaders who want to return to their native country intend to receive security guarantees from foreign countries. In the first place, they hope for Russian support." (Fergana.ru, December 21).
Commentators link the recent developments in Turkmenistan with the Russian-Uzbek agreement, which gives the Russian Air Force the right to use a military airfield near Navoi with a view to establishing the headquarters of the CIS ABM system. They attribute consolidation of bilateral military cooperation to the risks of destabilization in the region. "A report (about the signed agreement) leaked into the press on the day when the authorities officially announced the Turkmen President's unexpected death. It goes without saying that the death of a Central Asian dictator makes regional security an extremely urgent issue." (Fergana.ru, December 21).
TAJIKISTAN
The media assume that the visit of Ukrainian Prime Minister to Astana could lay the beginning of bilateral cooperation with an anti-Russian tinge. "The visit by the Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich to Astana may testify to the alliance of the two former Soviet republics against Russia ... Yanukovich's trip to Astana went almost unnoticed. Those few commentators who covered it wrote that it did not produce significant results... But the East is a sensitive area, where hints mean more than open statements... Yanukovich visited an independent Central Asian player, which is choosing its partners, rather than just a CIS country, following in Russia's wake. It is no coincidence that both the Ukrainian Prime Minister and the Kazakh President went to Washington on the eve of their meeting." (Asia-Plus, December 21).
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